Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Sometimes, life just is not fair. Just last night, things were looking "all systems go" for Synaptics (Nasdaq: SYNA) shareholders. Strong sales of touchscreens for mobile computing devices helped the company beat estimates and contributed to a stronger-than-expected forecast for fiscal Q3 revenue. No sooner had it done so, than out came tech analyst Jefferies this morning and told investors that results notwithstanding, the shares are 37% overvalued. Cue sell-off, stock down 10%.
So what: Synaptics earned $0.50 per share in Q2, a 43% jump from year-ago levels on 20% higher revenues. But Jefferies isn't so sure they can keep this up in the face of eroding market share. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) licensee HTC, Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), and Nokia (NYSE: NOK) are all said to have switched to other suppliers for their smartphone touchscreen-building needs. Meanwhile, slowing PC sales at Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) are said to be crimping growth prospects in Synaptics' core market.
Now what: Now, I don't mean to go whistling past the graveyard on this one -- but to me it seems Jefferies' concerns are overdone.
Yes, weak PC sales and share loss in smartphones are troubling trends, but the way I look at these things, they seem more than priced into Synaptics shares today. The most recent numbers suggest the company's generating cash at the rate of about $90 million per year -- enough to give the stock a measly 11x free cash flow valuation today. With long-term profits growth still projected at 19% per year, I think that makes the stock a bargain.
Want to keep your finger on the pulse of Synaptics? Add it to your watchlist here by clicking here.
