Will the new EU bailout fuel a debt supercycle? According to several analysts it very well could.
According to Fortune, the developed world faces a paradox: Easy credit is the solution to financial problems, and easy credit is the source of financial problems. European leaders are all caught up in this Catch 22 as they aim to manage the debt problems of Greece, Italy, and Spain in a summit on Wednesday.
Right now the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has $400 billion in committed funds for the use of propping up troubled financial institutions, and in turn their country's economy. This is in addition to the $200 billion already spent on Ireland, Portugal, and Greece.
But more money is needed to pump up the economies and assure the markets everything is under control. This has some worried that European economies will start to fall into a "debt supercycle," a term coined in 2007 by BCA Research.
"The debt supercycle is a simple idea: Sound economic policy requires deficit spending and stimulus efforts to stop financial crises and restore economic growth. But in doing so, it lays the groundwork for even bigger bust later on."
Essentially, bailout of a small crisis needs an easy flow of money that can lead to a bigger crisis, which requires an even larger and easier flow of money to move on. The pattern repeats until the necessary bailouts are too large to be managed. Has Europe reached that point?
Fortune notes, "most economists and policymakers see the 100% level of debt-to-GDP as the line where economies become unsustainable: historically, rising above this level is seen as sparking a long, slow economic and political descent." And while countries like Japan have a shocking 226% debt to GDP ratio, most of that debt is owed to itself.
Unlike Japan, the European Union has an 85% debt to GDP ratio right now and largely owes money outside its borders. With the addition of a $1.3 trillion dollars in bailout funds (the amount many officials say is the necessary to stabilize the EU) the debt to GDP will immediately raise to 94%.
So, are you worried about the debt supercycle's possible impact on your portfolio? To help you explore this idea, we identified about 150 S&P 500 stocks have the highest ratio of long-term debt to equity.
From this list, we collected data on institutional transactions, and identified the names that have seen the largest outflows during the current quarter.
Big money managers appear to be concerned about the debt levels at these companies -- do you own any of these names?
Use this list as a starting point for your own analysis. (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)
List compiled by Eben Esterhuizen, CFA:
1. Gilead Sciences
2. Sealed Air
6. The Interpublic Group of Companies
7. Janus Capital Group
Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.
Kapitall's Eben Esterhuizen does not own any of the shares mentioned above. Institutional data sourced from Fidelity.
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