CAPS' Weekly Top Stock Idea

Our investing community's latest prime pick: Coach.

Dan Dzombak
Dan Dzombak
Mar 28, 2013 at 11:31AM
Consumer Goods

Each week I cull a top stock idea from the pitches made on CAPS, the Motley Fool's 180,000-member free investing community. Want your idea considered for this series? Make a compelling pitch on CAPS with a minimum length of 400 words. Want to follow the weekly picks? Follow me on Facebook or Twitter.

Company

Coach (NYSE:TPR)

Star Rating

****

Industry

Consumer goods

Market Cap

$13.93 billion

Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Yahoo! Finance, and Motley Fool CAPS.

Coach investors have had a rough year, with the stock down almost 35% in the past year and down 10.5% year to date after the company missed earnings expectations in January. The company is attempting to reinvent itself as a "lifestyle" brand as it strives to compete with fast-growing competitors Michael Kors (NYSE:CPRI), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL), and Tory Burch, which benefit from their famous founding fashion designers. The stock is down as investors are nervous over the company's transition which will include a new CEO next year. Some investors think the drop is an opportunity, including CAPS All-Star NovaTodd. Last September, NovaTodd picked the stock to outperform the market over the next five years, and just last week, NovaTodd made a pitch for Coach.

Coach Outperform Pick

Pitch Submitted By:

NovaTodd

Member Rating:

84.80

Submitted On:

March 20, 2013

Stock Price at Original Outperform Recommendation:

$53.33

Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Yahoo! Finance, and Motley Fool CAPS.

This Week's Pitch:
I bought yesterday at $48.00. I consider this a bargain for a company with such an outstanding track record of efficiency and profitability. ROIC has been consistently north of 40% over the past several years, and checked in at 56% last year; sales per square foot is close to $2,000 and ranks among the very best in the retail sector. Coach has a rock-solid balance sheet with a strong cash position and minimal long-term obligations; in fact, FCF generated last year alone adds up to about 80% of total liabilities on the balance sheet.

The valuation looks good right now: Price/Cash Flow is about 11.5, which is below the industry average of 16 and the company's own five year average of 15. The shares yield 2.4%, and the current dividend payout is only about 35% of free cash flow. Realistically, the shares could yield north of 4% in five years using the current price and applying a fairly conservative growth estimate to the dividend. The share count has also been in decline over the past few years.

I'm no fashion aficionado, but I think Coach has built a durable brand that will continue to command a premium price for the next several years.