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3 Predictions for the New Week

By Rick Munarriz – Sep 15, 2013 at 3:00PM

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This Fool sees a limb to go out on, and he's the adventurous type.

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

  • I predicted that Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR.DL) would close higher on the week. The company behind the popular Keurig line of brewers that make premium coffee in one-cup servings was hosting its first ever investor day on Tuesday. I figured it would go well given all of the recent buzz about new applications for the machine. Why host the first investor-oriented event in company history if you didn't think you had something worth sharing? The stock did close 2.6% higher on the week. I was right.
  • I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (^DJI 0.45%). This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, this was a great week for stocks. The Nasdaq moved nearly 1.7% higher, but the Dow was the real star with its 3% pop. I was wrong.
  • My final call was for lululemon athletica (LULU 0.17%) to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The retailer of high-end yoga apparel for women has been a growth darling more often than not, and it came through with a profit of $0.39 a share, well ahead of the $0.35 analysts were targeting. The stock fell on a disappointing outlook, but it was still a beat looking back. I was right.

Two out of three? I can do better than that.

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. TIBCO Software will close lower on the week
This should be a good time for enterprise software companies, but try TIBCO Software (TIBX.DL) on for size. The provider of infrastructure software for companies checked in last quarter with year-over-year declines in revenue and adjusted earnings.

TIBCO has been a growth champ in the past, and founder Vivek Ranadive is a visionary with his "two-second advantage" philosophy. However, TIBCO has been pretty mortal lately. The company that routinely trounced Wall Street expectations has merely met estimates in back-to-back quarters, setting the stage for Thursday, where analysts see another dip in profitability on flattish revenue growth.

My first call is for this TIBCO to close lower on the week.

2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.

I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point, and tech should be what carries us through the economic recovery. The long-term outlook is still quite favorable.

The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3. Adobe will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

Adobe Systems (ADBE -0.44%) is the leading player in desktop publishing software solutions. Anyone online has come across images made in Photoshop, PDF files made in Acrobat, and even a few Flash-powered videos (outside of the reluctant yet shrinking iOS market share of the tablet and smartphone markets).

Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a profit of $0.34 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

 Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q3 2012

$0.58

$0.58

0%

Q4 2012

$0.57

$0.61

7%

Q1 2013

$0.31

$0.35

13%

Q2 2013

$0.34

$0.36

6%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. This isn't Adobe at its finest hour. Analysts see revenue and earnings posting year-over-year declines when it reports on Tuesday. There's an abundance of free or cheaper cloud-based solutions that perform some of the basic tasks that Adobe's high-end programs offer.

However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. The Motley Fool recommends Adobe Systems, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, lululemon athletica, and Tibco Software. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Price Return) Stock Quote
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Price Return)
^DJI
$34,347.03 (0.45%) $152.97
TIBCO Software Inc. Stock Quote
TIBCO Software Inc.
TIBX.DL
Adobe Inc. Stock Quote
Adobe Inc.
ADBE
$334.30 (-0.44%) $-1.48
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Stock Quote
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc.
GMCR.DL
Lululemon Athletica Stock Quote
Lululemon Athletica
LULU
$361.16 (0.17%) $0.63

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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