Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of outdoor-gear retailer Cabelas (NYSE:CAB) sank 11% today after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.
So what: The stock has been hot in recent weeks on optimism over a strong report, but a wide Q1 miss -- adjusted EPS of $1.32 versus a consensus of $1.41 -- coupled with downbeat guidance is forcing analysts to recalibrate their growth expectations. While revenue growth of 6.1% managed to meet estimates, same-store sales decreased a disconcerting 10.1% over the year-ago period, suggesting that Cabela's consumer appeal is wearing off rather rapidly.
Now what: Management now sees Q1 EPS of $0.32-0.42, well below the consensus of $0.57. "We believe that our operational improvements combined with new store performance will continue to deliver outstanding returns to shareholders," CEO Tommy Millner said. "At the same time, in the next two quarters, we expect moderation in both comparable store sales and in the Direct business due to the stronger than expected fall-off from last year's firearms and ammunition surge." When you couple those worrisome headwinds with the stock's pricey-ish P/E of around 20, I'd wait for an even wider pullback before taking a shot.