Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE) initially jumped nearly 11% early Tuesday following the company's better-than-expected quarterly results. However, the stock quickly gave up nearly all of its gains to close up around 0.4% following an analyst price target reduction.
So what: Quarterly revenue rose 20% year over year to $82 million, which translated to adjusted net income of $7.6 million, or $0.11 per diluted share. Analysts, on average, were looking for adjusted earnings of just $0.03 per share on sales of $78.7 million.
In addition, Guidewire now expects full-year 2014 revenue to be in the range of $341.5 million to $345.5 million, or an increase of $5 million at the midpoint from its previous expected range. This should result in adjusted net income per share of $0.51 to $0.55. Both ranges are well above expectations for 2014 earnings of just $0.38 per share on revenue of $342.2 million.
Despite its strong performance, analysts at UBS reduced their price target on Guidewire shares to $46 from $60, citing valuation concerns amid broader industry pressures. Still, with Guidewire currently trading around $37 per share, UBS maintained its buy rating on the stock.
Now what: To be sure, Guidewire doesn't exactly look like a bargain trading around 8 times trailing 12-month sales and 73 times next year's expected earnings. Even if those estimates rise as a result of today's numbers, I'm still not particularly eager to open a position. For now, I'm perfectly happy just keeping Guidewire on my watch list.