Don't Miss BlackBerry’s Resurgence

Even if BlackBerry isn't exactly there, yet (still not profitable), it has so much going for it that a “Total Resurgence" is probably not far away.

George Kesarios
George Kesarios
Jul 14, 2014 at 7:00PM
Technology and Telecom

Is BlackBerry (NYSE:BB) experiencing a sort of resurgence? Looking at the stock's price action over the past several weeks, the answer is probably yes. However, even if BlackBerry is not exactly there, yet, the truth of the matter is that the company has so much going for it these days, that a resurgence is probably not far away. Because markets are forward-looking, they are discounting this resurgence today.

BlackBerry surprised the market again
BlackBerry surprised investors in its fiscal fourth quarter,  when it reported an adjusted net loss of  $0.08 per share vs. market expectations of a $0.56 per share loss. BlackBerry surprised the market once more on June 19, reporting an adjusted loss of $0.11 per share vs. the consensus of $0.25 per share. 

You will have to wait and see if the company surprises the market again in its fiscal second quarter (August 30), but analysts are probably adjusting their quarterly estimates to the upside and, perhaps, for the year, as management is aiming to be cash-flow-positive by fiscal year end.

BlackBerry's hardware sales probably hit bottom
BlackBerry's hardware business grew by 4.95% quarter over quarter, driven by the success of the Z3, which is currently only available in Indonesia. However, the company is planning to introduce the Z3 in eight additional markets. So, if hardware sales grew by 5% with the introduction of the Z3 in Indonesia alone, it might mean that hardware sales could pick up with the introduction of the Z3 in other markets. On June 25, BlackBerry released the Z3 in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and will be followed by Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait later this summer. 

If you can't beat them, join them
One of the deterrents preventing consumers from buying BlackBerry devices has been the fact that BlackBerry's app store is not as rich as Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) or Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) respective ecosystems.

On June 18, BlackBerry announced that the Amazon App store -- with more than 240,000 Android apps in its arsenal -- will be available to all BlackBerry 10 devices with the launch of the BlackBerry 10.3 operating system this fall. This significantly expands access for BlackBerry customers to thousands of Google's most popular apps and games like Groupon, Netflix, Pinterest, Candy Crush Saga, and Minecraft.

It's unlikely that this move will do much to revive sales in the U.S., but it could help device sales in emerging markets, where BlackBerry has a strong following. Even if BlackBerry's market share is almost nil in the U.S., the company still makes one of the most popular devices in many other parts of the world.

May the Shorts be with you
Finally, for the longest time, short sellers in BlackBerry's stock have refused to give in. No matter what management says, short interest has remained consistently high over the past several years.

While this was a curse back then, it might turn out to be a blessing this time around. If BlackBerry recovers over the next several quarters, short interest in BlackBerry shares should fall to 2%- 5% of the total shares outstanding, which is an average short-interest percentage for most stocks, compared to the 19% of total shares outstanding, as per the most recent data.


In fact, the most recent data shows that short interest increased once again. However, those who sold the stock short are already losing a pretty penny. The stock has rallied over $3 per share since 6/13/2014, and everyone who has shorted it (assuming they have not covered) is losing money.

If those 100 million, or so, shorted shares will be covered, then not only will BlackBerry's stock experience a resurgence, but it might also go much higher than most investors can imagine in the short term.