Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM -2.36%) dropped more than 11% early Thursday after the chip maker beat quarterly expectations, but followed with disappointing guidance.
So what: Fiscal first quarter 2015 revenue rose 7% year over year to $7.1 billion, which translated to 6% growth in adjusted net income per share to $1.34. Analysts, on average, were looking for earnings of $1.25 per share on sales of $6.93 billion.
However, Qualcomm also reduced its full-year revenue and earnings outlook for its semiconductor business by $800 million and $0.30 per share, respectively. Now, Qualcomm expects fiscal 2015 revenue of $26 billion to $28 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $4.75 to $5.05. By contrast, analysts were modeling earnings of $5.21 per share and revenue of $27.8 billion.
Now what: Qualcomm elaborated there are three reasons for its guidance reduction.
First, a "shift in share among OEMs at the premium tier" has reduced its near-term opportunity for sales of integrated Snapdragon processors. Second, Qualcomm is seeing heightened competition in China, where it resolved a previously disclosed dispute with a licensee, but still believes there are certain licensees which aren't fully complying with contractual obligations to report sales of licensed products.
Third -- and likely the biggest catalyst of today's decline -- Qualcomm no longer expects its Snapdragon 810 processor to be in the upcoming design of a "large customer's flagship device." Qualcomm isn't naming names, but a Bloomberg report last week indicates it's Samsung, which apparently dropped the cutting-edge chip from its upcoming Galaxy S6 due to overheating issues in testing.
Make no mistake: That's an enormous loss. And while Qualcomm remains solidly profitable, given its current headwinds I can't blame the market for bidding shares down so aggressively today.
