Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Boulder Brands (BDBD.DL) fell as much as 20% on Thursday (and were down about 11% as of 3:30 p.m.) after the consumer packaged foods company reported fourth-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street's expectations.
So what: If today's stock market reaction is anything to go by, investors are focusing squarely on the top line at Boulder Brands. Indeed, as the following table illustrates, the company's guidance for 2015 EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization -- a measure of cash flow) exceeded the consensus forecast while earnings-per-share guidance landed right in line with the projection. However, the company's outlook for revenue fell short of what analysts were projecting:
|
|
Q4 2014-Achieved |
Consensus estimate |
|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
$128.6 million |
$134.1 million |
|
Adjusted EPS* |
$0.05 |
$0.05 |
|
|
2015 Guidance |
|
|
Revenue |
$550 million-$560 million |
$577 million |
|
Adjusted EBITDA |
$78 million-$82 million |
$73 million |
|
Adjusted EPS |
$0.25-$0.29 |
$0.27 |
Source: Zacks Investment Research, Thomson Financial Network, Boulder Brands.
Now what: A stock's intrinsic value is equal to the sum of discounted cash flow, not discounted revenue, so the market's focus on the top line might appear a bit myopic here. However, it does raise the question of Boulder Brands' long-term addressable market, which looks pretty narrow given its specialization in gluten-free foods. Commenting on Boulder Brands on CNBC today, the always vociferous Jim Cramer said organic foods look like a more attractive segment; for once, I'm inclined to agree with him.
