What: Shares of Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ:CENX) jumped 25% today after reporting fourth-quarter 2015 results.

So what: Revenue dropped 30% to $383.9 million and the company swung from a $75.8 million profit to a $43.1 million loss, or $0.50 per share. Adjusted net loss, which pulls out one-time items, was a bit worse at $0.53 per share, but came in a penny ahead of estimates. That's what had investors so excited today.  

Now what: Despite the decline in results, investors are betting that we're seeing a bottom in the metals market. Management at Century Aluminum and its competitors continue to push for sanctions on what they feel is Chinese dumping of aluminum products.

Betting on a recovery is risky given the large losses being reported. I'd like to see a financial turnaround before jumping in because we really don't know how bad the metals market will get.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.