Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Cosan's Sugar-Free Debut

By Toby Shute – Updated Nov 14, 2016 at 11:22PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Is there a storm a-brewin' for this sugarcane ethanol player?

I suppose two smokin' IPOs in one week would have been a little too much to expect amid the smoldering wreckage of recent market turmoil. But just because Mr. Market didn't throw Brazilian sugarcane slinger and ethanol exporter Cosan (NYSE:CZZ) a welcome bash, as he did for virtualization vendor VMware (NYSE:VMW), doesn't necessarily mean you ought to pull away the welcome mat.

New as it may be to U.S. investors, Cosan is a major force in both the sugar and ethanol markets. Let's look at each business in turn.

Cosan is a top-three global sugar producer, and the second-largest exporter. The timing of the firm's IPO relative to the arrival of Hurricane Dean in the Caribbean is an interesting one. A lot of sugarcane is grown in the Caribbean and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Sugar No. 11, the world raw cane sugar commodity contract, perked up on Friday in the face of a potential weather-induced cut in the region's output. This would be a boon to Cosan, which has projected sagging profits in the face of a global supply glut this growing season.

In the ethanol arena, Cosan is second only to Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) in production, and first in exports worldwide. To most investors, ethanol is doubtlessly the company's greatest attraction. But to me, the ethanol market's apparent fragility seems to be Cosan's greatest risk. Ethanol prices have plunged since last summer's peak, and when you factor in all the processing capacity being built out by the likes of Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX) and VeraSun Energy (NYSE:VSE), ethanol production looks like a risky business to be in today.

Cosan listed shares in the U.S. in order to help fund its huge expansion plans. I see the company spending far more than it generates in cash to grab share in a market where satisfactory returns are far from guaranteed. I have no bias against growth. I'm just not convinced that investors will be adequately rewarded for funding this particular company's plan. For now, I'll be watching Cosan from the side of the field.

We're sweetening the deal with further Foolishness:

Fool contributor Toby Shute has a sweet tooth, but no position in any company mentioned. The Motley Fool's disclosure policy will field any of your questions.

None

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Stock Quote
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM
$81.51 (-0.17%) $0.14
VMware, Inc. Stock Quote
VMware, Inc.
VMW
$107.71 (-1.72%) $-1.89

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
329%
 
S&P 500 Returns
106%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/26/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.