You've heard the hype: India is growing ... fast.
But who is really putting their money where their mouth is? More important, where is it going?
Mark Hillman and Kenneth Fisher are just some of the legendary names getting a piece of the action. Need proof? Peer into Ken Fisher's investment into Sterlite (NYSE:SLT) and Hillman's into ICICI Bank.
While my own perspective may be biased (I've spent a great deal of time in India and like its prospects), you can't ignore the millions these gurus have invested.
The dawn of an economic empire
Goldman Sachs issued a report in 2003 predicting that India's economy will be the world's third largest by 2035. The report cited expected annual growth rates of 5.3% to 6.1%.
Are you kidding me -- 6.1%? Since 1996, the nation has averaged more than 7%. Though dipping just recently, India has been pumping out near double-digit GDP growth.
Though it may be a bumpy ride, India has the potential to fulfill these optimistic promises. Unfortunately, I'm about as confident in "potential" macroeconomic projections as I am in my own ability to read the future. After all, questions about economic reform, infrastructure, and education must be addressed first.
But if these projections are even close, the Indian stock market will show you the money.
China vs. India: showdown of the 21st century
The real question is: How much of these two looming giants should you have? Both are growing at accelerated rates, so it's not a simple decision. You really need both -- a good piece of China will pay off over the next few decades.
That said, I look to India to exploit an edge: its commitment to the democratic process. Yes, this may sound cliche. India's government has long been criticized for extended periods of unremarkable reform. Yet I prefer it.
Eager to highlight China's swift ability to prioritize resources -- often at the expense of its own citizens -- most experts give China the advantage. If Aluminum Corp of China (NYSE:ACH) needed to demolish a neighborhood to create a new mill-- POOF -- it'd be done!
If even our own local governments could operate with that kind of unencumbered authority, we'd have fewer potholes, failing public schools, and congested roadways. If the government would put ceilings on grain prices from Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), we wouldn't be facing rising food costs thanks to zooming demand for ethanol. But this is simply not how our government works—and I like it that way.
Advantage: India
Long term, India's commitment to democracy is a massive benefit. The economies of Brazil, Taiwan, South Korea, and, yes, even the United States can testify to that.
At its simplest, India is attempting to build a foundation of sustainable yet powerful growth. And it is doing it through a functional democratic process, which is accountable to its citizens.
Taking stock
When it comes down to specific companies, India has some specific areas of critical advantage. The IT outsourcing world has been hit before. But I thinkPatni Computer Systems is still an intriguing investment opportunity.
In the financial world, our Global Gains team of analysts picked up on two banks (ICICI was one) that have delivered tremendous returns this year.
Attacking its own content-hungry consumers, Rediff.com (NASDAQ:REDF) has created a strong online presence that is beginning to resemble a certain Chinese comparable: Baidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU). Rediff is certainly not on the same scale of popularity or profitability yet, but it may be getting there soon.
Down the road, India's advanced medical system should begin to reveal profitability in a big way. Though the sector is still immature, look to companies like Dr. Reddy's Laboratories to help promote growth. The company is one of India's largest medical firms, but its $2.3 billion market cap is just a blip compared to that of Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN). In other words, there's plenty of room for growth.
Investing legends have picked up on India's potential. So should you. If you'd like to do just that, the Motley Fool Global Gains team is here with precise advice. Click here to try the service free for 30 days.
This article was first published Sept. 28, 2007. It has been updated.
Fool analyst Nick Kapur owns no shares of any stock mentioned in this article, though he is invested in India. Sterlite is a Motley Fool Global Gains recommendation. Baidu.com is a Rule Breakers pick. The Fool has a disclosure policy.
