If you're like me, you probably think you've got it pretty much figured out -- the stuff that matters, anyway. But just in case, I hope you'll take a moment and read on.
In June 2007, and again this time last year, I was shoved aboard a plane and dragged around the globe. The idea was to test my impressions of the world, its markets, and most importantly, its people. What I found made me a better investor and a better person.
Myth No. 1: Two wheels good …
For reasons you will soon find apparent, I'd like to focus today on China, a sprawling mini-continent home to more than 1.3 billion people. If you are like I was, you're probably thinking "Man, that's a lot of Wizard of Oz-era Schwinns and pointy straw hats." And you'd be right -- 10 years ago.
Now it's a lot of cars. Don't misunderstand: Even I knew that Shanghai and Beijing -- with its five-loop beltway -- would be a Jiffy Lube paradise. But if, for you, China's "smaller" second- and even third-tier cities conjured images of Chinatown circa the 1906 earthquake, you're in for a shock (more on the tier-two story in a moment).
In fact, in light of recent events, you can't help but wonder how much better off General Motors or Ford
Myth No. 2: Small towns are small
Again, I knew Shanghai and Beijing would be big. What I didn't know is that the "smaller" tier-two cities are big, too. That is, until I had the pleasure of visiting five of the 20 or so Chinese towns bigger than Chicago. All are vibrant, modern cities -- no doubt twice the size they were this time last year -- my favorite being Xi'an, with its uncanny city wall.
Xi'an is also where I put to rest myths No. 3 and No. 4. The first seems a little silly in retrospect. I mean, maybe it's not completely insane to presume that a city home to IBM
In fact, despite an infatuation with things Western, I doubt China's burgeoning middle class ever will adopt English as a second or "business" language. I don't think they'll need to. Just as it's clear that China's top businesses won't always rely on exports and massive trade surpluses -- for instance, the three we'll discuss just below.
And now for a delicate point …
I mention my fourth observation cautiously -- having seen a tiny part of the country and knowing full well I may have this one wrong. But perhaps my biggest surprise was the apparent loyalty and buoyancy of the workers I encountered. I'm not sure what I expected, but these were not the ground-down, discouraged, and exploited laborers I'd read and heard so much about.
True, I visited a relative handful of Chinese companies. And some -- for example, travel agent Ctrip.com
To be sure, the living arrangements seem at odds with what we know here in the United States. Often, the workers, mostly young men and women from the countryside, live in dormitories on campus. But my impression is that they were happily employed, even happy to be there. They certainly are friendly -- and sure love their basketball.
Of this I have no doubt
Again, I know that human rights remains a challenge in China, and I have no illusion that all companies are as pleasant to work for as Ctrip, China Green Agriculture, and China Fire. Clearly, these three companies stand out among China's best. Which is a big part of why my colleague, global investing expert and Motley Fool Global Gains co-advisor Tim Hanson, named them his top picks from our 2008 and 2007 research trips to China, respectively.
It may also explain why one stock is up 100% and the other has already tripled in less than a year. Of this I have no doubt whatsoever: Disproving my No. 5 China myth -- my idiotic notion that Americans aren't welcome there -- was pure pleasure. Having visited no less than half a dozen of China's cities, I can assure you that nothing could be further from the truth.
The people I met across China are among the most gracious and friendly I've met outside of Iowa. And this from a guy who accepted more than one dinner invitation with the awkward confession that "I won't likely eat anything with a head on it." (I feel oddly homesick just writing this column.)
The best China idea out there
But this is an article about investing, after all. As I mentioned earlier, my colleague Tim Hanson and I returned from our research trips to China in 2007 and 2008 with actionable investment ideas that are now up 100% and more than 200%, respectively. That's what got me thinking about this column today.
Unfortunately, I couldn't make the research trip this year. But Tim landed in Shanghai a few days ago. He wasn't in Shanghai long; this year he and his team plan to spend most of their time traveling across China's rural heartland, visiting companies and searching for the next China Fire, China Green Agriculture, or other three-digit gainer. I have a suspicion he'll find it.
If you'd like to hear about Tim's No. 1 China stock for 2009, here's how to do it. Click the link below and sample Tim Hanson's global stock research for 30 days absolutely free. That way, you're automatically set up to receive his dispatches live from the road in China. You'll also be the first to hear about his top China stock for 2009.
I just received Tim's second dispatch and will be following along avidly over the next two weeks. Even without the stock ideas, reading the dispatches is a blast. If you're interested in joining along and being among the first to receive Tim Hanson's top China stock for 2009, simply click here now.
Fool writer Paul Elliott doesn't own shares of any stocks mentioned. Ctrip is a Hidden Gems recommendation. China Green Agriculture is a Motley Fool Global Gains selection. Intel is an Inside Value selection. You can see the entire Global Gains scorecard with your free trial. The Motley Fool owns covered calls of Intel and has a disclosure policy.
