Is the common complaint that Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation Pixar (NASDAQ:PIXR) takes too much time between film releases finally getting to the computer-animation studio? Yesterday, a Prudential analyst aggressively raised her price target for the stock -- from $40 to $75 -- on the assumption that, come 2009, the studio will be producing more than just one theatrical release a year.
The grumbling started back in December, when Pixar announced that it was delaying its next release -- the final original property due under its deal with Disney (NYSE:DIS) -- from November 2005 to May 2006.
The move appears to be a logical one, since Disney's The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe is scheduled for a Dec. 9 release, and the last thing Disney or Pixar wants is two potential blockbusters butting heads in the crucial kid-friendly holiday movie season. But the move would also mean that Pixar was repeating its habit of putting out one new release every year and a half.
It was hard to argue with Pixar's string of hits, but with rivals DreamWorks Animation (NYSE:DWA) having no problem producing two animated features a year, it was only natural to wonder why Pixar couldn't pick up the pace, too. That way, at least the company would be better prepared for an eventual box-office dud that would expose the company's weakness if it had to suffer a three-year gap between hits.
Pixar had already made it clear that after Cars rolls off the theatrical assembly line a year from now, it will be releasing new projects annually -- in the high-stakes month of May, where blockbusters truly do live to play all summer long. But now that Pixar has beefed up its studio's staff, Prudential is confident that the company will be producing two films every other year come 2009. When you tack on the sequels that Disney may be making off Pixar's earlier releases -- with or without the help of Pixar, yet with Pixar still due to collect a slim share of the profits -- it may all add up to some explosive profitability for a company that is already producing some heady high-margin results.
Naturally, lost in all this is that we may very well have a glut of computer animation on our hands. That's because we're not just looking at Pixar and DreamWorks combining for the possibility of four computer-rendered features in 2009. Disney is also mentoring young computer-animation studios, and we can't forget News Corp. (NYSE:NWS), after its success with Robots and the Ice Age franchise. The consumer's appetite isn't likely to wane for quality animation anytime soon, but if too many films flood the market, audiences will have to be more selective. That won't be good news for any of the players, no matter how quickly they can churn out the inked celluloid.
Some more recently drawn headlines:
- Pixar's had a welcome habit of making analysts feel inferior by blowing away profit targets.
- Learn why Cars was put up on concrete blocks.
You can also talk about it all and then some on our Pixar discussion board.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns all of the Pixar releases on DVD. Yes, he owns shares of Pixar, too -- and Disney. The Fool has a disclosure policy. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.
