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These Are the Market's Biggest Opportunities

By Anand Chokkavelu, CFA - Updated Nov 10, 2016 at 6:04PM

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Volatility equals opportunity.

It is perhaps THE fundamental investing lesson; it's what Ben Graham was talking about when he referred to the vagaries of Mr. Market, and it's what people really mean when they repeat the silly phrase "buy low, sell high."

Maybe you already get it, but most investors will never learn that lesson. I know I struggle with it.

Why? Because no matter how many bubbles and bursts we live through, we all get juiced on the way up and terrified on the way down. We confuse our buy opportunities with our sell opportunities.

But if we can keep our heads when all about us ...
Numbers are clearer than words. An easy way to gauge volatility is to compare 52-week highs and lows. The bigger the spread -- i.e., the percentage difference from the low to the high -- the greater the volatility.

Let's start with the most benign example. Here are three blue chips with no bankruptcy concerns, no subprime drama, and no bailout misery:

Stock

52-week low

52-week high

Spread

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG)

$43.93

$73.57

67%

Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)

$46.25

$63.85

38%

PepsiCo

$43.78

$75.25

72%

These spreads are all lower than the S&P 500's 97% 52-week spread, but it's amazing that a company like Pepsi, whose business model is so steady, has a high that is priced 72% higher than its low.

A greater opportunity
There's certainly been opportunities in the blue chip space, but let's take it up a notch or three. Check out the spreads on these companies that all faced speculation about possible bankruptcy or nationalization:

Stock

52-week low

52-week high

Spread

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)

$2.53

$39.50

1,461%

Citigroup (NYSE:C)

$0.97

$23.50

2,323%

MGM (NYSE:MGM)

$1.81

$38.49

2,027%

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS)

$1.38

$59.17

4,188%

Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI)

$0.05

$1.49

2,880%

These spreads are cartoonish. To translate, in the last year, the investors who bought at the highs spent 14 times (Bank of America) to 42 times (Las Vegas Sands) what those who bought at the lows paid.

If groceries fluctuated like that, you'd see some people paying a quarter for a can of 7-UP while others paid more than $10.

But wait, it gets better ...
Now here's the kicker. I ran a screen to find the most volatile stocks (i.e., those that presented the best opportunities for outrageous profits) over the last year. None of these companies cracked the top 10!

Why?

Because my list was dominated by smaller companies -- even though I excluded the potentially fly by-night over-the-counter companies I've warned you in the past to avoid. Yes, a few large caps were sprinkled among the top 50 most volatile, but the vast majority were from small-cap land.

The market's biggest opportunities
To further test my hypothesis that smaller companies offer the market's biggest opportunities, I compared the spread volatility of large caps (via the S&P 500) with the spread volatility of small caps (via the Russell 2000) over the last year. By this measure, small caps were 50% more volatile!

So how does this help us? I believe the market will continue to be quite volatile over the next year as investors hem and haw about the state of our economy. Since volatility = opportunity, it's a great time to add some more small cap companies to our watch lists.

As the market continues to zig-zag, we'll have the ability to pick up some of our favorite companies at steep discounts. But only if we rise above the panic by identifying promising stocks early and patiently waiting for the market to deliver tasty prices.

If you want some help constructing your small cap watch list, I invite you to check out our Motley Fool Hidden Gems newsletter service. The team scours the small cap universe for watch-list candidates; current stocks that they're waiting for cheaper prices on include Granite Construction, Under Armour, and Jinpan International. Once a stock's price gets attractive enough, they buy it with The Motley Fool's own money. You can see their watch list and their entire real-money portfolio by clicking here for a free 30-day trial. There's no obligation to subscribe.

Anand Chokkavelu owns shares of Citigroup and Sirius XM. Wal-Mart Stores is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble are Motley Fool Income Investor recommendations. Granite Construction, Under Armour, and Jinpan International are Hidden Gems picks. The Fool owns shares of Procter & Gamble. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Stock Quote
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
WMT
$128.48 (1.97%) $2.48
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Stock Quote
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
SIRI
$6.38 (0.79%) $0.05
Citigroup Inc. Stock Quote
Citigroup Inc.
C
$53.62 (-0.87%) $0.47
Bank of America Corporation Stock Quote
Bank of America Corporation
BAC
$37.02 (0.95%) $0.35
The Procter & Gamble Company Stock Quote
The Procter & Gamble Company
PG
$148.72 (1.53%) $2.24
MGM Resorts International Stock Quote
MGM Resorts International
MGM
$34.89 (1.19%) $0.41
Las Vegas Sands Stock Quote
Las Vegas Sands
LVS
$34.62 (1.32%) $0.45

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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