After reading W.D. Crotty's fantasy about the prospects of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE:KKD), investors understandably might have visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads. Unfortunately, Krispy Kreme, which is already down over 85% off its highs back in 2003, is more likely to become a nightmare for those who think it's a multibagger from here on out. Multibagger? The odds of this stock hitting a multibagger are similar to those of me getting an extra-base hit off of Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning. Possible? Maybe. Likely? Let's just say it's been a while since I've faced live pitching from anyone older than seven.
The subtext of my good friend W.D.'s bullish article is that Krispy Kreme could be the next Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). Let's disabuse ourselves of such a ludicrous notion once and for all. One of Krispy Kreme's problems is that it was trying to be larger than it could realistically manage. If the company is to survive at all -- and it's by no means certain that it can -- it will be as a result of reducing the scale of its operations, not increasing them.
W.D. does throw a few numbers into the mix. Alas, these numbers are wishful thinking. First, we don't have accurate numbers for the past few years. These are being recalculated as we speak. Second, it is not useful to look at a figure like market capitalization to sales when the value of the company in question may well be zero.
Ultimately, there is a good chance that Krispy Kreme will end up in bankruptcy proceedings. If it's lucky, it may narrowly escape this dire fate with some extreme restructuring. Either result would seriously destroy value for shareholders. Of all the Foolish stocks in all the markets in all the world, this is one of the most decidedly un-Foolish.
Krispy Kreme is a recommendation of our Motley Fool Stock Advisor newsletter service. Since its 2002 debut, the average pick has tripled the return of the S&P 500. But the Duel doesn't end here. If you haven't already, check out the Bull and Bear arguments and the Bull rebuttal, then cast your vote for the winner.
John Reeves does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in the article. He did, however, eat two doughnuts a week, every week for the first 18 years of his life. This comes out to approximately 1,850 doughnuts. Click here for The Motley Fool's disclosure policy.
