Let's cut to the chase, PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP). Love the Pepsi One, the Doritos, and the Tostitos -- not so thrilled on the valuation.
Though the company strikes me as well-run large company with considerable global potential, the stock seems to already have that baked in.
Results for the first quarter were about what I would expect -- solid, but not scintillating. Revenue rose 9% atop a 7% increase in servings volume, but gross margins took a bit of a hit from higher material costs. And though some of this was recouped elsewhere, operating margins were essentially flat, with operating income rising about 8%. I'd also point out that, much as I don't care for quarter-by-quarter cash flow analysis, structural free cash flow was down slightly.
It'll be interesting to see how this company navigates material costs through the remainder of the year. I doubt Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is going to cut the price of aluminum cans anytime soon, and ingredients like high fructose corn syrup from Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) aren't looking to get cheaper either.
In its favor, at least volume is positive across the board -- though low-single-digit growth in Frito-Lay and Quaker is not a lot to get excited about. On a more positive note, growth in overseas markets -- particularly in places like Russia, China, and India -- seems to be good, and I expect to see a long-term rise in consumption, assuming that per-capita incomes continue to rise.
Last and not least, we have the news that beverage companies Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), PepsiCo, and Cadbury Schweppes (NYSE:CSG) have agreed to plans that will restrict or eliminate soda sales from some schools. Now apart from the paternalist streak this shows, I doubt it'll really hurt sales all that much for any of these players.
PepsiCo is a perfect example of a company that I'd like to own ... at a much more attractive price. But you never really know with these large and popular stocks -- if they miss a quarter or two or make a major strategic blunder, they might just get cheap enough for a closer look.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
