Well, Corn Products (NYSE:CPO), show us what you can do.
After all, the corn sweetener market is an oligopoly (shared between Corn Products, ArcherDaniels Midland (NYSE:ADM), Cargill, and Tate & Lyle (NASDAQ:TATYY)) where capacity utilization is pretty high and price increases in the low teens have been secured in contracts. And while the company is incurring higher than expected costs installing a new boiler, the move to more coal-fired capacity should help contain energy costs.
So if Corn Products is ever going to deliver respectable returns on capital, something that it has never done (as far back as I can find numbers for it), now's the time. And sure, I'll grant that ROIC has nothing to do with short-term stock market performance, but I'll argue strongly with anyone who doesn't think it matters in the long run.
The good news/bad news in this past quarter is that the company did pretty much what was expected of it. A 9% rise in revenue and a 31% boost in operating income isn't a bad performance, but I think some of the run-up from the lows in September was at least partially predicated on the idea that the company might be in a position to raise guidance. Unfortunately, costs associated with boiler installation led management to drop guidance. And in a Wall Street tit-for-tat, the stock got dropped as well.
As you might have already guessed, I'm not tremendously inclined toward this company. After all, the best I can really say is that it doesn't seem as expensive as Archer Daniels Midland; then again, ADM has the ethanol craze working in its favor.
On the other hand, as I suggested at the beginning, if this company is ever going to have a stretch of solid performance, now should be the time. Sweeteners are an inescapable staple ingredient in our food sector and I really don't think Americans (or Latin Americans, for that matter) are going to start consuming less product from sweetener consumers like Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), or Hershey (NYSE:HSY). Besides, with sugar prices moving upwards and talk of shifting more sugar production toward ethanol (in countries like Brazil, at least), corn sweeteners should be an attractive alternative.
I'm not ruling out the possibility of making more money here, but this really isn't the stock for me. If I want to delve into a commodity-like company, I want one with either a good history of returns on capital or some special hook to the story. In my view, Corn Products doesn't have enough of either to excite me.
For more related Foolishness:
- Will Corn Products Ever Make Sweet Music?
- It's Sweeteners, It's Ethanol, It's ADM
- The New Pepsi Challenge
Coca-Cola is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. To find more top-shelf stocks at bargain-bin prices, sign up today for a free 30-day guest pass .
Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
