All around Wall Street, companies are queued up to report their Q2 numbers, but one firm is all ready to put a bow on the whole of 2007. FMCG-oliath Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) reports its fiscal Q4 and full-year 2007 results tomorrow.
After the news comes out, we'll have time aplenty to dissect it. But in these few hours before we begin obsessing over Procter & Gamble's short-term progress, let's take a moment to review what investors think about it as a long-term investment. Our tool in this endeavor: Motley Fool CAPS, where we poll more than 60,000 investors for their views on well over 4,000 companies, P&G among them. Here's what Fools have to say about it.
Up or down?
More than 1,900 investors have submitted ratings on P&G, making it the 36th most-rated stock in all of CAPS-land. Their verdict: How can you not love this company?
The stock is expected to outperform the market by 97% CAPS investors, which suffices to earn P&G all five possible CAPS stars.
Among its CAPS peers, P&G shares this rank with three other companies. Many of its rivals are not so fortunate:
|
Major Drug Manufacturers Group |
CAPS Rating (out of 5) |
|---|---|
|
Procter & Gamble |
***** |
|
Colgate Palmolive (NYSE:CL) |
***** |
|
Playtex (NYSE:PYX) |
***** |
|
Inter Parfums (NASDAQ:IPAR) |
***** |
|
Bare Escentuals (NASDAQ:BARE) |
** |
|
Kimberly Clark (NYSE:KMB) |
** |
|
Revlon (NYSE:REV) |
* |
Wall Street vs. Main Street
Wall Street sentiment basically tracks Main Street's on this one. Out of the dozen analysts we track, 11 expect it to outperform the market. So far, so good -- if only just barely. Over the last 52 weeks, P&G has in edged out the S&P 500's returns by about three or four percentage points.
Bull pitch
Bulls love pretty much everything about P&G -- its "obviously great" brands; its "unique 'promotion from within' policy that greatly motivates people"; and, of course, its role as a recession hedge, in that P&G makes "consumer products that people buy no matter what."
Also key to the thesis, in my view, should be the fact that as a global operation that derives 57% of its revenue from outside the U.S., P&G offers a hedge against the declining U.S. dollar. The more euro, yen, and yuan this company earns abroad, the more devalued greenbacks it can buy with those profits.
Bear pitch
Bears see a margin squeeze in the making at P&G, and a flaw in the recession hedge thesis. They argue that the company's greatest strength -- its branded consumer products -- may become its greatest weakness in a recession, as consumers "trade down" to no-name brands in an effort to pinch pennies. P&G's reliance on a single seller, Wal-Mart, for a good portion of its revenue also threatens the firm's margins.
Sounds reasonable. But from what I see reviewing the firm's margin trends, it isn't happening yet. Gross margin remains above the 50% mark, and P&G's net margin is still rising.
Who said that?
To learn the identities of the wise Fools who penned these words, to examine their records (and see whether they know whereof they speak), and to explore the plethora of additional financial data we've put together on the company, just click here.
Colgate-Palmolive is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation.
Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any company named above. You can find him on CAPS, publicly pontificating under the handle TMFDitty, where he's currently ranked No. 356 out of more than 60,000 raters. The Fool's disclosure policy brushes and flosses with gusto.
