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Mortgage Rates Rise, but Homebuyers Should Remain Grounded

By Alex Dumortier, CFA – Updated Nov 21, 2016 at 5:36PM

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Mortgage rates rose to kick off the week of Thanksgiving. The effect of rising rates on the housing market is uncertain, but homebuyers need to focus on their individual situations.


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Mortgage rates rose on Monday. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 3.96%, which equates to a $475.11 monthly payment per $100,000 borrowed, or $27.74 higher than the equivalent payment would have been a month ago.

If you were to opt for a shorter term, the average 15-year mortgage rate is 3.09%, which equates to a $694.92 monthly payment per $100,000 borrowed, or $18.20 higher than the equivalent payment would have been a month ago.

Rate (National Average)

Today

1 Month Ago

30-year fixed jumbo

4.48%

4.42%

30-year fixed

3.96%

3.47%

15-year fixed

3.09%

2.71%

30-year fixed refi

4.03%

3.50%

15-year fixed refi

3.16%

2.73%

5/1 ARM

3.28%

3.00%

5/1 ARM refi

3.59%

3.12%

5/1 ARM: ADJUSTABLE-RATE MORTGAGE WITH AN INITIAL FIXED 5-YEAR INTEREST RATE. DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG. RATES MAY INCLUDE POINTS.

The post-election run-up in mortgage rates continues, but homebuyers ought to remain grounded

Mortgage rates added to their post-election spike on Monday, kicking off a shortened week as the country prepares to celebrate Thanksgiving. On Friday, this column reminded potential homebuyers that, by historical standards, current rates remain a bargain, even after their recent increase. Nevertheless, the move does raise a number of questions, including just how far/fast it will run and what the effect on the housing market will be. Bloomberg Intelligence today published a note looking at the latter question. They (wisely) decline to take a view on the short-term impact:

The short-term outlook for the [housing] industry will largely depend on whether overall economic growth accelerates enough to encourage demand from potential home buyers while offsetting the impact of increasing mortgage rates.

However, they note that the "longer term prospects [for residential investment] remain encouraging":

Consumers are in better financial shape, the labor market continues to strengthen and the pace of housing construction is heading toward the long-term average of 1.5 million housing units the prevailed before the crisis.

This may be an interesting question for economists and pundits. However, if you're a potential homebuyer, you ought to bear in mind two things: First, no one knows better than you your capacity to take on a mortgage. Second, depending on your situation, the state of and outlook for the economy may have little to no bearing on that capacity. In making your decision, focus on the factors that matter to you, not what talking heads want to discuss.

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