What the Largest IPOs Returned Over Time
The performance table in the introduction shows returns over five periods of time from IPO.
In the first three months, five of the 10 biggest IPOs had negative returns. Facebook fell 47%. Saudi Aramco fell 23%. NTT DoCoMo and SoftBank Corp both fell roughly 10%. Of the five that gained, Visa (+92%) and ICBC (+48%) posted the largest jumps. Both are financial companies that are listed outside a major technology cycle.
At the one-year mark, the picture improves across the board but remains uneven. Five of the 10 were still negative one year in. NTT DoCoMo was the outlier at +47%, benefiting from late-1990s telecom enthusiasm before the sector reversed. Visa and ICBC were positive. Facebook and General Motors were both down more than 30%.
At the five-year mark, the split between sector winners and losers becomes clear. The financials and technology companies had largely recovered and compounded their gains. The energy, telecom, and utilities names had not. Enel was down 16% at five years; NTT DoCoMo was down 48%; Saudi Aramco was down 11%.
Total return since IPO reinforces the sector gap. The difference between the best (Visa, +2,854%) and the worst (Aramco, -13%) is not primarily a reflection of how much each company raised. It is driven by sector, timing, and business model durability over the full period.
"On average, IPOs, particularly larger ones, disappoint investors during their first year," said Lou Whiteman, contributing Motley Fool stock analyst. "Larger IPOs tend to attract a lot of hype, and as the excitement fades, so too does buying interest."
Insider lockup expirations can compound that effect by increasing the supply of shares as the first year progresses. By year five, Whiteman said, those temporary factors fade and the stock trades more on fundamentals, though if the original valuation was stretched, "the fundamentals might not support an elevated stock price."
His advice for investors: stay patient amid initial post-IPO volatility, and make a fresh assessment after the market has adjusted to the company regularly reporting earnings.