It might seem strange to think about what your Social Security benefits will look like in 2026 when we still have five months left of 2025. However, if you're already struggling to stretch your checks far enough, it's only natural to wonder whether the next cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will bring you any relief.
The Social Security Administration won't announce the official 2026 COLA until the middle of October, but there are already estimates floating around that give us some idea of what to expect. And it may not be what you want to hear.
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The 2026 COLA will look pretty similar to 2025's
The Social Security Administration bases its COLAs on changes in average third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). It sounds more complicated than it is.
Basically, it takes the CPI-W numbers for July, August, and September of the current year and averages them. Then, it does the same for the numbers from July, August, and September of the previous year. The difference becomes the COLA. For example, the 2024 average was 2.5% higher than the 2023 average, so seniors got a 2.5% COLA in 2025.
We don't have all of the data to do the 2026 COLA calculation right now, so all we can do is guess, based on where the numbers appear to be headed. Earlier in the year, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, projected a low 2.1% COLA, which would be the smallest since 2021.
However, that number has slowly crept up, and now, TSCL's most recent projection puts the 2026 COLA at 2.6%, slightly higher than what seniors received last year. Someone receiving the $2,005 average monthly benefit, as of June 2025, would get an extra $52 per month, bringing them to $2,057 per month.
What this means for seniors
While a 2.6% COLA is in some ways better than a 2.1% COLA, it's important to realize that neither is likely to vastly improve your finances. Higher COLAs are often a sign of higher inflation, so the extra money you'll get will likely go toward paying for increased costs on groceries, utilities, and other living expenses.
Even if the official COLA were to come in higher -- say 3% -- that would only add about $60 to the average check. Chances are that you could use a little more than that, particularly if you don't have a lot of savings to supplement your checks.
Many others are in the same boat, and groups like the TSCL have long been calling for reforms that would increase Social Security COLAs to help checks better keep pace with inflation. By TSCL's calculations, benefits have lost 20% of their buying power since 2010, despite the COLAs.
So far, though, the government hasn't seriously considered any of these reforms. This may be partly because Social Security is now just eight years away from insolvency, and larger COLAs would only accelerate this deadline. The end result is that it's largely up to seniors to work out how to stretch their benefits a little further every year.
This isn't always easy, but you may be able to manage by limiting your discretionary purchases or considering a part-time job if you're struggling to make ends meet. You could also try applying for other government benefits to help you cover essential costs, like food and utilities.
There's Supplemental Security Income (SSI), as well. This is a monthly benefit for the blind, disabled, and low-income seniors. The maximum federal benefit is $967 for a single adult and $1,450 for a couple and increases annually with the COLA. In addition, some states supplement SSI benefits for their residents.
Once the Social Security Administration announces the 2025 COLA, it'll be time for you to work out a plan for next year. However, it isn't too early to start looking at your options.
