For retirees who collect Social Security, the announcement of the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) is a big deal. Social Security benefits are an important income source for millions of Americans, and the government announces a COLA -- a benefits increase -- most years to help benefits retain their buying power even as prices increase due to inflation.
So, when will the Social Security Administration (SSA) announce how large of a raise seniors are on track for in 2026? Here's what you need to know.
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This is when the 2026 cost of living adjustment will be announced
For retirees eager to find out how big their benefit increase is going to be in 2026, you'll have to be patient. The Social Security does not announce how big the COLA will be until mid-October.
There is a reason why October is the key month. The cost of living adjustment is based on year-over-year changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures the costs of a specific basket of goods and services.
The SSA calculates the COLA by taking into account third-quarter CPI-W data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The third quarter includes the months of July, August, and September.
When September's CPI-W data becomes available in October, the SSA will compare the third-quarter average to the same period a year ago. Any year-over-year increase becomes the COLA. For example, if the data shows that prices have gone up an average of 2.5% over the course of those three months, then retirees would be in line for a 2.5% raise.
There are estimates out already for seniors eager to know what the 2026 COLA will be
It may be frustrating to find out that it's going to be several more months until you know how big your benefits increase will be, especially if you are counting on Social Security to help you cover the essentials. You may be feeling the pinch right now and want to know if you'll have more breathing room in your budget next year.
The good news is estimates already exist to give you some insight into how big of a benefits bump is likely coming. Data from the first six months of the year can indicate how inflation is trending. Based on currently available data, the Senior Citizens League (a senior advocacy group) is predicting a 2.6% COLA for 2026. This prediction has been trending upward, as the group previously expected a 2.5% COLA.
While these projections can change, retirees at least have something to go on as they estimate what their budget will look like next year. The official COLA for 2026 will come out on Oct. 15.
