We're about two months away from the official 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement, and you're definitely not alone if you're itching to know what kind of boost you'll get next year. It's a pretty big deal, especially if you depend on your benefits for more than half your income.
Guesses are already circulating about what the COLA will look like. While they're still subject to change, there's a lot we can learn from past and current projections to get us in the ballpark where the 2026 Social Security COLA will fall.
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How the Social Security Administration calculates COLAs
The reason we can only guess about what the 2026 Social Security COLA will be is due to how it's calculated. The Social Security Administration (SSA) bases COLAs on changes in average third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Basically, it adds the CPI-W numbers for July, August, and September of the current year and divides the total by three. Then, it compares this to the average from the previous year. For example, the Q3 2024 average was 2.5% higher than the Q3 2023 average, so Social Security checks saw a 2.5% COLA for 2025.
The July 2025 figure just came in, and it's roughly 2.5% higher than the July 2024 number. But we're still waiting on those August and September data points. Once the September number comes in on Oct. 15, 2025, calculating the COLA will be simple math. Until then, we're left with projections and examinations of past trends.
What we can infer about the 2026 COLA
Looking at historical COLA trends can't really tell us anything about the next COLA, because it's highly dependent on inflation levels, which fluctuate over time. Instead, we look to projections from organizations like The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, to get an idea of what to expect.
Looking back on TSCL's predictions, we know they're generally pretty accurate, especially as we near the announcement date. As early as April of last year, TSCL predicted a 2.6% COLA -- just 0.1% higher than the actual 2025 COLA. In May 2023, it projected a 3.1% 2024 COLA, which wound up just 0.1% under the 3.2% COLA seniors saw that year.
TSCL's latest estimate for the 2026 COLA is 2.7%. It's likely that the COLA will be somewhere in this neighborhood, though there's reason to believe it could still fluctuate a little. Unlike years past when TSCL's predictions largely held steady, they've been slowly climbing all year, starting from 2.1% in January. This could be because of President Donald Trump's tariffs, which many believe could push up the inflation rate in the coming months.
The average COLA over the last 25 years or so is around 2.5%, so seniors will likely see an average to slightly above-average boost next year. But the dollar amount may still fall short of what seniors were hoping for. The average monthly Social Security retirement benefit as of July 2025 was about $2,007 per month. The average spousal benefit was just $954 per month. A 2.7% increase would only add $54 and $26, respectively, to these checks in 2026.
Again, the actual COLA could be a little higher than this, based on what inflation does over the next few months. But if you're worried that your benefits may not go far enough next year, you may need to look into other ways to cover your costs, like relying more on personal savings or cutting back on expenses if you can.
