Surprises tend to be less welcome the older you get. That's because they're often (although not always) of the negative variety.
Will retirees be in store for surprises related to Social Security in 2026? Probably. One, in particular, could be the biggest surprise of all.
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What shouldn't be too surprising
It's possible that the exact amount of next year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could be a little surprising to some retirees. However, I don't think it should be too surprising.
Retirees must wait another five and a half weeks (give or take a few days) for the Social Security Administration (SSA) to announce the 2026 COLA. The agency needs inflation data for September 2025 to finalize its calculations. That information should be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in mid-October.
Thanks to the nonprofit senior advocacy organization The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), though, we have a pretty good idea of what the next Social Security benefits increase will be. Each month, TSCL updates its statistical model designed to predict the next COLA. Its latest forecast is that the 2026 Social Security COLA will be 2.7%.
Sure, TSCL might have to revise its COLA projection somewhat after incorporating the August inflation numbers (which won't be available until mid-September). The September inflation data could also cause the actual COLA announced by the SSA to be different from TSCL's prediction. However, it's a good bet that the Social Security benefits increase will be fairly close to the organization's projection.
An unpleasant surprise
The average monthly Social Security retirement check in July 2025 was $2,006.69. A 2.7% COLA would translate to an additional $54.18 per month. But most retirees shouldn't count on pocketing the full Social Security increase.
If you're age 65 or older, you likely have your Medicare Part B premiums deducted from your Social Security benefits. Perhaps the biggest surprise for retirees in 2026 is that those premiums could increase much more than they did last year. And if your Social Security benefits are close to the average payment, the premium increase could wipe out roughly 40% of your COLA.
The Medicare Trustees project that Medicare Part B premiums will jump by 11.6% next year, almost twice the amount of the increase in 2025. On average, the monthly premium will be $21.50 higher. That's the largest dollar increase for Medicare Part B premiums since 2022, when they rose by $21.60.
If the 2026 Social Security COLA is 2.7% as currently projected by TSCL, this expected Medicare Part B premium hike will offset 39.7% of the average Social Security increase of $54.18 per month. Many retirees who aren't bracing for the higher premiums could be in store for a decidedly unpleasant surprise when they see how much additional money they receive from Social Security next year.
What can retirees do?
Aside from trying to reduce overall spending or working part-time to boost income, is there anything retirees can do to prevent so much of their 2026 Social Security COLA from being erased by higher Medicare Part B premiums? The good news is that there are a few actions you may be able to take.
First, look into possibly switching from traditional Medicare to a Medicare Advantage plan. Although you'll still have to pay the higher Part B premiums next year, some Medicare Advantage plans offer lower deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums that could save you money.
If your income is limited, you might qualify for federal and state programs that provide financial assistance. For example, Medicare Savings Programs (MSPs) can help partially or fully cover Part B premiums, deductibles, and coinsurance and are available in every state.
What if you have a high income? You may be subject to income-related monthly adjustment amounts (IRMAAs), which are surcharges that increase your Medicare Part B premiums. Lowering your income in the current year won't help for 2026 because IRMAAs are based on your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) from two years prior. However, if you had a major life event, such as a job loss, marriage, death of a spouse, or divorce, you could appeal to the SSA to lower your IRMAA.
