We're inching closer to the biggest Social Security announcement of the year, with five of the six data points needed to calculate the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) now in place. Soon, you'll be able to start figuring out how far your checks will go next year and what you'll need to do to make up the rest.
There's still one critical piece of information missing. But even without that, we can get a pretty good idea of what kind of a boost you can expect in 2026.
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How the Social Security Administration calculates COLAs
It takes six numbers to calculate a Social Security COLA -- data points from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to be exact. We already have five of those necessary to calculate the 2026 COLA. Those are the numbers from July, August, and September of 2024, and the numbers from July and August of 2025. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the September 2025 number on Oct. 15, 2025, we'll have everything we need to determine the next COLA.
First, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will add the three numbers from each year together and divide by three to come up with third-quarter averages. Then, it'll look at the difference between the two averages as a percentage. This becomes the COLA. For example, the 2024 Q3 average was 2.5% higher than the 2023 Q3 average, so seniors got a 2.5% COLA in 2025.
Over the last 20 years, COLAs have averaged around 2.6%, though we had a few exceptionally high years during the pandemic when inflation drove up the cost of goods quickly. This year's COLA could come in slightly above this average, but it likely won't be anything to write home about.
It won't be life-changing
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, has predicted a 2.7% COLA for the last two months. This seems pretty much in line with the data we already have:
|
Month |
CPI-W Number From 2024 |
CPI-W Number From 2025 |
|---|---|---|
|
July |
308.501 |
316.349 |
|
August |
308.640 |
317.306 |
|
September |
309.046 |
Announced Oct. 15, 2025 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If we average the numbers from July and August of 2025 and compare them to the Q3 average from 2024, we get about 2.6%. So a 2.7% COLA is within reach, but it all depends on where the September number winds up.
Assuming the COLA is 2.7%, it would raise the $2,008 average retirement benefit as of August 2025 by $54 per month. The $955 average spousal benefit would increase by about $26. Over a year, that would give you $648 and $312 more, respectively.
It's hardly life-changing money, and for some, it may not even be enough to cover the higher cost of goods they'll pay on their everyday expenses due to inflation. But it's important to remember that COLAs are percentages. If your checks are larger than the average today, you'll likely get a larger bump than what's listed above -- again, assuming the COLA comes in at 2.7%.
The SSA will send out personalized COLA notices to you in December telling you exactly how much you can expect to get next year. But you don't have to wait that long to figure it out. After the COLA announcement on Oct. 15, 2025, you can take the COLA percentage and multiply it by your current monthly benefit. This should provide you with a pretty close estimate.
Compare your new benefit amount to your monthly expenses to see how much you'll need to cover on your own. If you're not able to make up the difference with personal savings, you may have to explore other options, like cutting expenses, taking on a part-time job, or seeking out other government benefits to make ends meet.
