Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. In this series, I look at 10 measures to show what makes a great retirement-oriented stock.
If being runner-up is a tough position for a company, then coming in at No. 3 is even harder. That's the situation that ConocoPhillips
The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.
Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.
When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:
- Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
- Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
- Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
- Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
- Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at ConocoPhillips.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
|Size||Market cap > $10 billion||$67.5 billion||Pass|
|Consistency||Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years||4 years||Pass|
|Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years||4 years||Pass|
|Stock stability||Beta < 0.9||1.14||Fail|
|Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20%||(39.8%)||Fail|
|Valuation||Normalized P/E < 18||5.38||Pass|
|Dividends||Current yield > 2%||4.9%||Pass|
|5-year dividend growth > 10%||12.1%||Pass|
|Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years||11 years||Pass|
|Payout ratio < 75%||28.6%||Pass|
|Total score||8 out of 10|
Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.
Since we looked at ConocoPhillips last year, the company has picked up a point. Faster revenue growth gave the oil giant the extra point, but everything will look much different for the company going forward.
Ever since Conoco said it would separate itself into two entities, investors have hoped for an outcome similar to what Marathon Oil
The same thing seems to be happening to Conoco right now. Both its shares and those of newly spun-off Phillips 66
In the meantime, Conoco is moving on with its upstream production assets. With lucrative prospects around the world, the company will have no shortage of upside even if oil prices don't move significantly higher from here.
For retirees and other conservative investors, spinoffs always present tough decisions. Don't let the 5% yield based on past payouts fool you, but the company said in a recent presentation that a 4.5% yield wasn't out of the question. Regardless, Conoco represents an interesting way to invest in a huge E&P pure play -- something that you won't find with integrated rivals ExxonMobil and Chevron
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.
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