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Extending its momentum from the fourth quarter of 2018, property and casualty insurer Safety Insurance Group (SAFT +0.00%) generated a substantial underwriting profit in Q1, which translated into nearly triple the net income of a year ago. Even excluding unrealized gains in the investment portfolio, earnings per share nearly doubled.
The main reason for the dramatic rise in profitability? Property-casualty insurers like Safety are rather dependent on weather. In other words, bad weather events like winter storms and hurricanes can lead to big losses. While the first quarter is a potential trouble spot for winter weather activity, this year's Q1 saw significantly milder weather than the year-ago period.
Image source: Getty Images.
Metric |
Q1 2019 |
Q1 2018 |
Year-Over-Year Change |
---|---|---|---|
Combined ratio |
95.9% |
103.4% |
(750 basis points) |
Net income |
$29.9 million |
$9.1 million |
229% |
Non-GAAP operating income per share |
$1.36 |
$0.71 |
92% |
Diluted EPS |
$1.95 |
$0.60 |
225% |
Book value per share |
$49.08 |
$47.01 |
4.4% |
EPS = earnings per share. Data sources: Safety Insurance Group and author's own calculations.
The first quarter is generally a difficult one for Safety, as winter weather can wreak havoc on the company's bottom line (especially since Safety primarily writes auto insurance policies in Massachusetts).
That said, the second and third quarters are generally the company's most profitable. For context, Safety's combined ratios in the second and third quarters of 2018 were 90% and 90.9%, respectively, which is a significantly higher underwriting profit than it just earned.
The most concerning thing for investors is the decline in written premiums from a year ago. If Safety can manage to increase its premium volume and put up midyear profitability numbers similar to what it produced in 2018, the rest of 2019 could be a good year for Safety and its investors.