The stock surged more than 6% on June 10 alone when data-visualization specialist Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA) announced Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) would acquire it in an all-stock deal commanding an enterprise value of roughly $15.7 billion (net of cash).
To be clear, this doesn't mean Splunk is guaranteed to be acquired next. But it was hard to blame traders for bidding up the stock after coupling Tableau's acquisition with the deal's potential -- however slight -- to bolster mergers and acquisitions in the data-analysis space.
It's also worth noting that Splunk still hasn't fully recovered from its more than 17% plunge in May, when cash flow concerns overshadowed a better-than-expected first-quarter report and increased full-year guidance. However, the concerns were driven by a surprising acceleration in Splunk's shift to renewable bookings and cloud-based subscriptions, both of which should leave the company much stronger and with more predictable revenue streams in the end.
Splunk hasn't announced the timing of its fiscal second-quarter 2019 report -- though if its past Q2 reports are any indication, it should arrive in late August. Unless the company offers a preliminary update between now and then, I think the stock will likely move in tandem with its peers and the broader markets. But even after last month's pop, it could be an enticing buy before the true strength of its business becomes more clear.