Shares of SunPower (SPWR 3.64%) jumped 11.8% in September, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, after giving guidance for the full year to investors. The momentum continued with shares rising another 24.8% in the first six days of October.
The real news was management releasing 2020 guidance for SunPower after the Maxeon Solar Technologies spinoff. It expects fourth-quarter revenue of $330 million to $370 million, GAAP net income of zero to $10 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $20 million to $30 million. For the full year, revenue is expected to be $1.06 billion to $1.10 billion, GAAP net come will be $30 million to $40 million, and adjusted EBITDA will be $20 million to $30 million.
Reading between the lines, SunPower's operations look to be moving past the break-even point, which bodes well if the company can grow revenue in the coming years.
Another impact on SunPower and other solar stocks is the growing lead presidential candidate Joe Biden has over President Trump in the polls. Biden is seen to be much more friendly to renewable energy and may include incentives for the industry as part of an economic stimulus package. It's uncertain the exact policy change that could be put in place, but investors are bidding up renewable energy stocks ahead of the election in hope of some good news in 2021.
While the guidance for all of 2020 was decent, SunPower still has a lot to prove in getting back to sustained profitability. Investors may also be too optimistic about the scale and impact of policy changes in 2021, which are still far from reality. I like where the solar industry is going overall, but the rapid jump in SunPower's shares feels undeserved at this point.