Transportation is rapidly going green, fast enough that oil demand from that sector is expected to plateau by 2026, according to a new forecast by analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).
Oil has fueled the industry for most of the last century, but it's clear that advances in electric vehicles and renewable energy are going to impact long-term oil demand. The International Energy Agency is expecting demand to peak by around 2030, but in a new report, Goldman says to expect it to happen well before then.
"Government policies driving higher efficiency gains and lower emissions have had the strongest bearing on road transport demand," Goldman analysts including Nikhil Bhandari and Damien Courvalin wrote, according to Bloomberg.
Even if Goldman is right, there will still be considerable demand for oil even after transportation use peaks. The report said petrochemicals will become the new baseload for oil demand, driven by economic growth and rising consumption in emerging markets.
Goldman said overall crude consumption is expected to continue to expand through the rest of the decade thanks to petrochemicals and jet fuel demand, but said growth in the second half of the 2020s is likely to be "anemic" as transportation use wanes.