If you looked at share price alone as an indicator of a quality business, you might end up missing out on some wonderful bargains on great companies. Likewise, you could also end up buying stocks just because they're trading down, not necessarily because the business itself presents a wise long-term investment.
In bull markets, bear markets, and everywhere in between, it's vital to look beyond share price and assess a business in its totality before you put your money to work.
Today we're going to look at two top stocks -- each of which has seen shares fall by double digits over the past year -- that still possess compelling business models and growth trajectories that patient investors can capitalize on over the long term.
Let's take a closer look.
1. Teladoc
Teladoc (TDOC 4.55%) has seen shares tank over the past year. Some investors remain uncertain about its long-term growth story in a post-pandemic normal, and there have been negative reactions to the wide net losses it reported in recent quarters. It's important to evaluate each of these factors individually.
Teladoc's dominance in the global telehealth market was well-established before the pandemic occurred. The pandemic certainly drove heightened adoption of telehealth solutions, and Teladoc was a direct beneficiary of that. It also would have been unreasonable to expect its growth trajectory to continue at a pandemic-era clip indefinitely.
However, even as we emerge from this era, the broad adoption of telehealth solutions by medical providers and healthcare consumers alike continues to accelerate. Whether a patient has restricted access to a medical provider due to poor physical health or simply because of their location, telehealth eliminates these barriers and opens up instant access to quality healthcare on the patient's terms.
With a population that is not only rapidly expanding, but rapidly aging, and the prevalence of chronic disease diagnoses, telehealth is becoming a more essential aspect of the modern healthcare system than ever before.
NYSE: TDOC
Key Data Points
But let's turn to Teladoc's steep losses this year. Even though Teladoc overpaid for Livongo in 2020, and had to implement nearly $10 billion in write-downs earlier this year as a result, the addition of this platform to its family of businesses significantly boosted its stable of chronic care solutions.
Chronic care is not only a key factor for Teladoc's long-term growth pipeline, but its expansion of this segment is already paying off. In the most recent quarter, management said that "The total number of our members enrolled in one or more of our chronic care programs was 791,000...an increase of 66,000 or 9% over the prior year's quarter."
Teladoc's financials are also looking better and better. In the third quarter, the company's net loss shrunk to $73 million, compared to $3 billion in the prior quarter. Its revenue of $611 million represented a 17% increase on a year-over-year basis. It also reported an adjusted EBITDA of $51 million for the three-month period.
The global telehealth space is expected to hit a valuation of close to $500 billion by the year 2026. With a client base that includes some of the world's largest companies and insurance providers, Teladoc's massive footprint in its industry bodes well for its ability to benefit from this vast potential. At its current share price, a $1,000 investment in this healthcare stock would add about 37 shares to your portfolio.
2. Upstart
Upstart's (UPST 1.00%) mission is to revolutionize the world of lending. Rather than relying wholly on traditional methods (i.e. FICO sores) to determine an applicant's eligibility for a loan, the company leverages the power of its proprietary AI-powered platform to take into account a much broader range of factors that dictate a person's creditworthiness. These could range from the person's education to their professional background.
Upstart has expanded the offerings available to applicants through its platform over the years, from personal loans to small business loans to auto loans. Not only are 75% of approvals carried out on a fully automated basis through Upstart's platform, but the company has facilitated an incredible $30 billion of loans to date.
Upstart's network of bank and credit union partners continues to grow rapidly, and it closed out the recent quarter with 83, compared to 71 in the prior one. The platform also leverages machine learning to predict risk and assess creditworthiness. In the company's third-quarter report, management noted that the accuracy of Upstart's model had improved at the same rate in the last four months as in the entire two years leading up to that period.
Upstart is also rapidly increasing the adoption of its auto retail lending software. In fact, its software is so widely used by auto dealers across the nation that it captures one-quarter of the entire U.S. auto market. The number of dealers that have adopted its auto retail software jumped to 702 in the third quarter from 640 in the prior quarter.
NASDAQ: UPST
Key Data Points
Naturally, investors are concerned about Upstart's prospects as fears of a recession loom, raising the risk of default and resulting in fewer approvals. These macro headwinds caused Upstart's revenue to fall 31% in the most recent quarter, and its net loss to widen to $56 million, compared to a profit of $29 million in the same quarter last year.
However, all this makes sense in light of the current environment, and the drop in approvals and lending volume that Upstart is seeing means that its model is working exactly as it was designed to. CEO Dave Girouard emphasized this fact in the company's Q3 earnings call.
I want to be clear, contraction in lending volume in a time of rising rates and elevated consumer risk is a feature of our platform, not a bug. In fact, it's required in order to generate the returns lenders and investors expect. Whether due to an increase in expected loss rates, caution on the part of lenders, or higher yield demanded by credit investors, higher interest rates and reduced volumes means that as unhappy as we are with the numbers, the system is working as intended.
While the near-term environment could prove challenging for Upstart's business, the novelty of its model and continued broad adoption by its lending partners, not to mention the utility of its services to consumers seeking to access credit, all bode well for its future growth beyond this period. A $1,000 investment in Upstart would add about 52 shares to your portfolio at its current share price.
