Continuing its 2022 trend, the Nasdaq-100 fell by over 9% in December, underperforming other indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This put a cap on its abysmal year, during which it fell nearly 33%.
Examining the stocks that had the worst December, however, revealed a noticeable trend: electric vehicles (EVs). The three worst-performing stocks in the Nasdaq-100 for December were Rivian Automotive (RIVN +1.25%), Tesla (TSLA +0.96%), and Lucid Group (LCID 2.17%). Should you pick up these stocks as 2023 begins? Or does this trio have more room to fall? Let's find out.
Rivian and Lucid are just too risky for most investors right now
While these three were the worst performers in December (Rivian was down 41%, Tesla was down 37%, and Lucid was down 33%), Rivian and Lucid were also the index's worst performers over the entirety of 2022. Tesla wasn't far off either, coming in as the sixth worst-performing stock in the Nasdaq-100.
This performance shouldn't come as a surprise, as EV stocks were all the rage back in 2021. However, now that free money has dried up (thanks to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates), investors' interest in unprofitable and overvalued ideas has evaporated. As a result, these stocks (along with many others, such as software stocks) were relentlessly sold off. However, one of them may see its fortunes turn around in 2023.
NASDAQ: LCID
Key Data Points
Rivian and Lucid are both working on getting production up and running. In Q3, Lucid produced and delivered 2,282 and 1,398 vehicles, respectively. While those numbers don't seem that impressive, they represent triple the number of cars produced in Q2 and double those delivered in Q2. That's a good improvement, but is it enough to meet demand?
Lucid has more than 34,000 reservations and an annual capacity of 34,000 vehicles. So, if it can get up and running (Lucid plans to make between 6,000 and 7,000 vehicles in 2022), it could fill all of its orders in just one year. From Feb. 28 to Nov. 7, Lucid only received 9,000 more reservations minus deliveries, so there may not be demand (especially because Lucid's cheapest model starts at more than $87,000). This makes Lucid a potentially risky investment.
Rivian is in much better shape than Lucid. It has 116,000 preorders for its R1 lineup in addition to 100,000 electric delivery vans ordered by Amazon. In Q3, Rivian produced 7,363 vehicles, a 67% increase over Q2. With Rivian on track to meet its production goal of 25,000 vehicles for 2022, the company seems to be in good shape with solid demand.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
However, both of these investments are risky because they are losing an incredible amount of money. Most investors aren't willing to take this kind of risk in the current environment, so Rivian and Lucid will likely see additional downward pressure in 2022. But what about Tesla?
Tesla is still performing well, but a distraction isn't sitting well with shareholders
While Tesla is still ramping up production in a few of its facilities, it is profitable. Tesla produced its most vehicles ever in Q3, manufacturing more than 365,000 vehicles -- a 54% year-over-year increase. However, with the capacity to produce around 1.9 million vehicles in all of its plants, Tesla has yet to max out its production.
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
Unlike Rivian and Lucid, Tesla is also fully profitable. In Q3, its earnings per share (EPS) rose 98% to $0.95, thanks to increased operating margins. So with rising earnings and increased production, why did Tesla do so badly during 2022 overall and during December in particular?
There are a couple of reasons. First, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is a polarizing character, and many feel his Twitter purchase has been too distracting for him, causing Tesla to suffer without his full attention (even though Musk has split his time with other companies long before the Twitter purchase).
Second, Tesla was pegged as over-valued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 100 throughout most of 2022. Now, the company trades at 30 times forward earnings, a more palatable valuation.
There's still the argument about Tesla being overvalued for a car company, and that increased EV competition will be a challenge for the company. But it's not nearly as risky of an investment as Rivian or Lucid. I wouldn't be surprised if investor interest returns in 2023, making Tesla an intriguing stock for January.
