Pharma giant Pfizer (PFE -0.19%) faces an immediate threat because the company's sales of its coronavirus products will drop substantially in 2023. That should lead to lower revenue than the past couple of years for the drugmaker, which is not something investors want to see.
Perhaps that's why Pfizer's shares are down by 20% so far this year, even as the broader market has been rallying since early January. Even so, there is a lot to like about Pfizer, but does the potential upside outweigh the risks? Let's find out.
Pfizer is going through a transition
It's not that unusual for pharmaceutical giants to go through one or two years of declining revenue, especially due to patent cliffs. Pfizer's upcoming decreasing top line is for an entirely different reason. The company generated record revenue over the past couple of years thanks to its coronavirus products. With the pandemic receding, that won't happen anymore.
However, Pfizer will be fine if it replenishes its lineup with new products. And the company is looking to do exactly that. Management has vowed to earn several important brand-new approvals over the next year. Some of these products include potential treatment for ulcerative colitis and alopecia areata, as well as an investigational vaccine for the respiratory syncytial virus.
Pfizer's management expects non-COVID-19-related revenue between $70 billion and $84 billion by 2030. Furthermore, while it's difficult to estimate how much the coronavirus vaccine and medicine market will look like by then, the company may continue generating some revenue from its products in that area if COVID stays with us, which is looking more and more likely every day.
Pfizer's $77 billion midpoint estimate of its non-COVID revenue by 2030 compares favorably to what it will likely record this year. For fiscal 2023, the drugmaker expects total revenue between $67 billion and $71 billion (or $69 billion at the midpoint), with combined sales of Paxlovid and Comirnaty -- its COVID-19 therapy and vaccine, respectively -- coming in at roughly $21.5 billion.
That results in potential total non-coronavirus revenue of $47.5 billion this year at the midpoint. Once pandemic-related dynamics stop affecting Pfizer's financial results as much, we can expect the company to grow its top and bottom lines at a good clip in the coming years as it adds brand-new products to its portfolio.
An attractive valuation and a solid dividend
Pfizer's prospects look even more appealing when looking at the company's valuation. Consider the healthcare giant's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which currently stands at a modest 11.5. That compares favorably to an average multiple of about 20 for the S&P 500. Even looking at the broader pharmaceutical industry, whose average forward P/E is about 14.9, the drugmaker still looks attractively valued.
If Pfizer's shares continue to fall, that will create an even better entry point for investors considering the company's long-term potential, although at its current level, Pfizer's valuation already seems more than fair for those investors willing to be patient. And there is at least one more reason to consider buying shares of the company, and that's Pfizer's dividend.
The company's dividend profile looks solid. Pfizer raises its dividends regularly, having done so by a robust 70.8% in the past decade. So the drugmaker can also cater to the needs of income-seeking investors, especially with a modest cash payout ratio of 34.5%, leaving plenty of room for more dividend growth.
Buy and hold through market volatility
Pfizer may be going through a rough patch, but the company's shareholders have plenty to look forward to ahead. The drugmaker is well on its way to delivering important approvals in the near future that will eventually help make up for the decline in sales of its coronavirus products. And its valuation and dividend make it even more attractive. That's why investors should go against the market on this one and purchase shares of Pfizer.
