Moderna (MRNA -2.23%) and ambition seem to go hand and hand. The company doesn't fear taking on challenges, as it demonstrated during the earliest days of the pandemic when it brought its coronavirus vaccine from the drawing board to market in less than a year. Investors rewarded the biotech company for its audacity and scientific strengths, driving up the share price by 1,700% in just 1 1/2 years..
Recent times have been more difficult for Moderna shares, though. As we head toward a post-pandemic world and demand for coronavirus vaccines declines, investors have worried about Moderna's dependence on its one and only product. As a result, the stock has retreated, slipping about 40% this year.
But Moderna's most exciting days actually may be ahead rather than in the past -- at least, if the company reaches its most ambitious goal yet. Can it happen?
Early pandemic days
First, a quick summary of Moderna's story so far. The biotech burst into the limelight with its messenger RNA vaccine early in the pandemic, sharing the market with big pharma Pfizer, also the maker of an mRNA vaccine. These products use a new technique, instructing the body to make proteins that protect against illness.
Moderna's vaccine brought in peak revenue of more than $18 billion last year, and revenue from the product since its late 2020 launch has helped the biotech advance other programs through its pipeline. So the vaccine has scored two big wins for the company.
Still, investors started to shy away from Moderna as the pandemic reached its later stages and a decline in vaccine demand seemed inevitable. Moderna predicts the coronavirus vaccine market will follow that of the flu shot, so we still could see billions of dollars in recurrent revenue from the product. But that hasn't been enough to lift the company's shares out of the doldrums.
Moderna hasn't let this get it down, though. In fact, it has announced its most ambitious goal yet: The biotech aims to launch as many as 15 new products over the coming five years. And these products could generate as much as $30 billion in revenue, far surpassing that of the coronavirus vaccine.
The advantage of speed
Now let's talk about whether this can actually happen -- which brings me back to the subject of Moderna's mRNA technology, the foundation of the company's entire pipeline. One big advantage of mRNA is speed. Researchers can quickly produce mRNA sequences in a lab -- and that's why Moderna went from generating a potential coronavirus vaccine candidate to dosing a human in clinical trials in just two months.
This means that, thanks to mRNA technology, Moderna may quickly weed out poor candidates and focus on the best ones -- and bring these into clinical trials at a pretty fast pace. Moderna's success with the coronavirus vaccine shows its mRNA platform works, so there's reason to be optimistic about the technology in other indications.
Other signs also suggest Moderna may not be too ambitious with its latest forecast. The company has doubled its pipeline in just three years. And Moderna is "3 for 3" in meeting phase 3 primary endpoints in infectious disease candidates and "3 for 3" in showing possible clinical benefit in its rare disease candidates, Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock said in a recent update. So Moderna has topped the industry's phase 3 success rate, which is generally about 59%.
The technology and resources for success
All of this means Moderna has the technology and speed to possibly reach the goal of 15 new products in the next few years. The company also has the resources, thanks to coronavirus vaccine sales as mentioned above. Moderna, which finished last year with more than $18 billion in cash, plans to invest about $5 billion annually from 2024 through 2028 in research and development.
Let's get back to our question: Could Moderna achieve its most ambitious goal so far? It's important to remember that failure can happen at any stage -- even once a candidate is submitted to regulators. Nothing is guaranteed in drug development, and every biotech and pharma company carries this risk.
That said, Moderna has what it takes to reach its goal from both scientific and financial standpoints. The biotech's platform allows for speed, and it's demonstrated great results so far. And it has the cash to support development.
All of this means it's reasonable to be optimistic about Moderna's future. Those who invest in it today may reap the rewards over time.