Beleaguered semiconductor manufacturer Intel (INTC +13.79%) had a rare bit of good news for investors Friday, and it's driving Intel shares up a solid 11% through 10:05 a.m. ET this morning.
Wall Street analysts had forecast Intel would earn only $0.22 per share (adjusted for one-time items) in the third quarter of 2023, but Intel actually earned $0.41 per share (also adjusted). What's more, Intel's sales for the quarter came in at a strong $14.2 billion, versus a Street forecast of only $13.5 billion.
NASDAQ: INTC
Key Data Points
Intel's earnings beat
The news wasn't all good.
Despite beating on sales, Intel's Q3 2023 revenue still declined 8% in comparison to Q3 2022. Gross profit margin on that revenue also slimmed by 10 basis points, to 42.5%. And while Intel was able to improve its operating profit margin, the improvement was only from negative 1.1% to (still) negative 0.1%. What's more, part of the reason the operating margin improved was because Intel scrimped on research and development (R&D), investing $800 million less in R&D in this year's Q3 than in last year's.
Ultimately, the company ended up earning a profit. But when calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) -- rather than non-GAAP (adjusted) income -- Intel earned only $0.07 per share in Q3, rather than the $0.41-per-share headline figure.
Should you buy Intel stock?
Nevertheless, investors aren't being too picky about what qualifies as good news today. Intel beat earnings. It beat on sales. And what's more, this is the third time in a row that Intel has exceeded expectations for earnings, which probably has investors thinking that Intel is back on the right track now.
Helping to reinforce that impression, Intel gave new guidance for Q4 that shows revenue continuing to grow in the current quarter -- to anywhere from $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion. Gross profit margin should also improve sequentially to about 43.3%. And on the bottom line, Intel says it should earn $0.23 per share, GAAP, and $0.44 per share non-GAAP.
That last number is the one analysts will be focusing on; they only predicted Intel would earn $0.30 per share this coming Q4, which means Intel looks set to report a fourth-in-a-row earnings beat three months from now.
All this being said, even if Intel maxes out its own forecast, this will still leave the company with a $0.01-per-share GAAP loss for the year. It won't be until 2024 that Intel finally returns to profitability (and the stock costs 44 times estimated 2024 earnings, by the way), and it will be until 2025 before the stock starts to look "cheap" at a valuation of about 21 times earnings.
Investors buying Intel stock today may be jumping the gun. This stock still isn't quite ready for prime time.
