PayPal (PYPL 0.59%) investors have had a tough go the past five years, with the stock down more than 40% over that stretch (including a roughly 80% pullback from its highs). However, there are signs a turnaround is in the works.
The payments powerhouse reported good results across several important metrics in its first-quarter earnings report. More important, it continues to set itself up for future success by reinvesting back into the business to help drive growth.
PayPal's numbers show happy users
PayPal's first-quarter results were very solid, with revenue rising 9% (or 10% if you exclude foreign currency effects) to $7.7 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 27% to $1.08. You might have expected a different number if you'd been following the company's guidance, but the company is now including the effects of stock-based compensation. The change is subtle, but I applaud it. Many companies take out this non-cash expense when reporting adjusted EPS, but stock comp is a real expense that increases overall share count and dilutes shareholders, so PayPal is actually being more transparent about its profitability.
PayPal showed strong total payments volume (TPV) of 14% in the quarter. This was led by a 26% increase in unbranded volumes, which is powered by its BrainTree offering. PayPal branded checkout TPV, meanwhile, rose a solid 7%, and Venmo was up 8%.
While PayPal's number of active accounts -- users who made at least one transaction in the past 12 months -- fell 1% in the quarter to 427 million, monthly active accounts rose 2% to 220 million. Meanwhile, transactions per account rose a robust 13%, and overall transactions were up 11%. This shows that the company's main customers are using its service more often.
2024 is still a transitional year
On PayPal's earnings call, CEO Alex Chriss called 2024 a transitional year that will help set the company up for future success. And while its Q1 results were better than expected, management plans to make decisions that will benefit the company in the long run.
With large enterprise customers, PayPal is focused on improving growth of its branded checkout business through technology upgrades that improve the customer experience. A big part of this is its Fastlane product, which lets users check out with one tap without needing to set up an account or provide credit card information with each merchant. PayPal said that early testers of the product are seeing a nearly 80% transaction conversion rate, which is creating a low-double-digit lift in guest checkout conversion. Fastlane is expected to be fully rolled out in the U.S. starting in the second half of this year.
PayPal also intends to start pricing to value, especially when it comes to value-added services. It said it has started talking to its largest customers about focusing on commercial outcomes. It also noted an example of its value-added services with DraftKings, which recently began using its fraud management solution.
Image source: Getty Images.
For small and medium-sized businesses, PayPal is looking to transition customers to its new PayPal Complete Payments Platform (PCPP), which includes its latest branded checkout integrations, like Fastlane. The company is rolling out the service to more countries. So far, it is seeing customers on the PCPP use more of its products, and it is getting twice the average revenue per account from customers using that platform, compared to its legacy platform.
On the consumer-facing side of its business, PayPal revamped its app with enhancements, including to its rewards program. It also began testing a rewards-focused life cycle marketing program. PayPal is also starting to drive active customers to add a debit card, which increases usage of its product.
An inexpensive stock
PayPal's stock is trading for less than 14 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months while growing its revenue by around 10%, so today's valuation is quite attractive.
PYPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts
At the same time, the company is showing solid signs of turning around its business, and it has a number of initiatives to ignite growth even further. Fastlane, in particular, looks like it could be a game-changer when it is rolled out later this year. PayPal is also projecting to generate around $5 billion in free cash flow this year, and it's planning to use that cash to buy back an equal amount of stock. That's a good use of capital given the stock's inexpensive valuation.
Between its valuation, growth prospects, and repurchase program, now looks like a great time to buy PayPal stock.
