Gold has ripped this year and is enjoying its best run since 1979. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 0.18%) is up more than 32% and is beating the broader market's bull run. Gold has likely benefited from geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, which have created much uncertainty.
Gold can also serve as a hedge against inflation. But I also think the looming U.S. presidential election and the country's finances could have something to do with gold's ascent. Whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump triumphs on Nov. 5, I predict gold will continue its impressive run.
Here's why.
Fiscal recklessness
In recent weeks, some of the most accomplished investors have unveiled investment positions and theses that buck conventional wisdom. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller revealed that he holds significant bets against U.S. Treasury bonds. Another billionaire investor, Paul Tudor Jones, said on CNBC that "all roads lead to inflation."
The statements seem counterintuitive to current economic data, which, by and large, suggests inflation is moving lower, although not always in a linear fashion. However, Druckenmiller and Jones are concerned that the U.S. government has lost control of its finances. Now, this isn't exactly a new take.
The gross U.S. national debt is closing in on $36 trillion, and the federal deficit for fiscal 2024 is now over $1.8 trillion. Debt to gross domestic product (GDP) is 124%. This means the government is spending a ton of money every year to make interest payments to maintain the debt. This year, the government has spent $882 billion on interest payments, or 13% of total budget spending.
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Key Data Points
Investors like Druckenmiller and Jones worry that the situation will soon -- if it isn't already -- become untenable and spill over into the bond market. Regardless of who wins the election, Harris and Trump are expected to try to implement policies that could be inflationary and worsen the country's financial position.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget projects that Harris would increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion through 2035, based on the central case of their analysis. Trump would increase the national debt by $7.5 trillion.
The University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School's budget model estimates that U.S. debt to GDP cannot exceed 200%. No amount of tax hikes or spending reductions would be able to stave off default at that level, and this kind of default would be larger and more detrimental than ever seen.
Why gold will keep moving higher
Gold is likely to benefit from fiscal uncertainty that will only worsen unless lawmakers act. However, it's unclear whether lawmakers will be able to fix the situation, given how large the debt has become and how many problems there are to address in the U.S. If bond investors start doubting the government's ability to repay its debt, bonds will decline and bond yields will surge, potentially leading investors to flock to a safer physical asset, like gold.
It remains to be seen whether that will happen. Jones also said he thinks the government will essentially have to inflate its way out of this situation by keeping interest rates low, running inflation higher, and then generating nominal growth that's above inflation.
Gold is viewed as a key hedge against inflation. Between fiscal uncertainty, the fact that the future president will likely aggravate debt issues, and the path to potentially correct these issues, gold should keep moving higher regardless of who wins the election.
