The U.S. voted to return Donald Trump to the White House Tuesday night, and the effects are making themselves felt across the stock market Wednesday morning. While not all votes have yet been tabulated, early Wednesday morning it's looking entirely likely that not only did Republicans win the popular vote and the Electoral College (with potentially as many as 312 electoral votes), but they now control a majority in the Senate, and potentially in the House of Representatives as well.
So what does this mean for renewable energy stocks?
Nothing good, it seems, according to investors. As of 9:50 a.m. ET, shares of solar panel producer First Solar (FSLR 3.34%) are down 18.9%, while solar power provider Sunnova Energy International (NOVA +0.00%) crashed a staggering 43%. Liquid hydrogen producer and hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer Plug Power (PLUG 7.08%) is suffering as well -- off 19.8% at last report.
NASDAQ: FSLR
Key Data Points
Why are investors selling solar (and hydrogen) stocks?
The reasons renewable energy investors are frightened take multiple forms. Sunnova for example could be a huge loser if new Trump tariffs against solar panels imported from China take hold and strangle its supplies. Conversely, investors might ordinarily favor a company like First Solar, which doesn't import panels from China at all, but rather manufactures them in Ohio and Alabama. (Albeit, First Solar does manufacture some panels in countries other than China, which could be affected by tariffs.)
Complicating matters further, The Wall Street Journal ran a story yesterday detailing "cutthroat competition" and overcapacity concerns at China's Longi Green Energy Technology. As "one of the biggest makers of solar-power equipment in the world," you'd expect Longi at least to have benefited from the recent boom in solar demand around the world. Instead, WSJ says the company lost $740 million in the first half of this year.
Tariffs or no tariffs, it seems even when demand for solar power is strong, it's tough to make a profit in this business. And demand may not be strong going forward -- at least not in the U.S.
Reporting last week on what energy investors should expect if Trump or Harris won Tuesday's election, Reuters highlighted a Trump promise to "rescind all unspent funds" approved by the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act. As Reuters pointed out, this could deprive companies like First Solar, Sunnova, and Plug Power of "hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for electric vehicles, solar and wind energy, and other clean energy technologies."
Whether Trump will follow through on that threat remains to be seen. But if he does, it could significantly reduce future expected revenue that is baked into analyst forecasts for these green energy companies, and slow their growth rates as a result.
Are any of these green energy stocks buys?
All of the above being said, investors today are being offered steep discounts on these three stocks, relative to what they cost just a day ago. Is it possible that what we're really seeing today, then, is a buying opportunity? A chance to "be greedy only when others are fearful," as Warren Buffett might put it?
Perhaps. At a trailing P/E ratio of less than 19, First Solar stock for example looks quite attractive on a forecast 31% long-term earnings growth rate. While rolling back IRA subsidies certainly poses a threat to that growth rate, the company's status as a domestic manufacturer in a country that may be raising tariff barriers against imported solar panels offers a potential tailwind to the business, and heightens the stock's attractiveness. Conversely, both Sunnova and Plug Power are deeply unprofitable, and I can't imagine that cutting government subsidies for renewable energy will improve those situations at all.
If you do decide to take advantage of today's sell-offs and go bargain hunting for cheap renewable energy stocks, I'd suggest making First Solar stock your first stop, and leaving Sunnova and Plug for later.
