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Trump's proposed across-the-board tariffs will create some losers. But there will be winners, too.
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The American people have spoken. On Jan. 20, 2025, Donald Trump, the 45th U.S. president, will also become the 47th president.
Trump has spoken, too. In his victory speech, after it became apparent he would win, Trump said, "I will govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises."
One of Trump's key promises during the 2024 campaign was to impose across-the-board tariffs on all imports, with especially steep tariffs on products imported from China. While some believe he might relax this stance, Trump insisted in his speech last week that "nothing will stop [him]" from delivering on his campaign pledges.
Tariffs could hurt many U.S. companies, but some will instead be helped. I predict three stocks are especially set to win if President-Elect Trump gets his way on tariffs.
Florida-based CSX (CSX +0.00%) ranks as one of the largest rail transportation operators in the U.S. It operates around 20,000 miles of rail in 26 states east of the Mississippi River and two Canadian provinces.
CSX stock jumped last week following Trump's victory. Investors appear to already anticipate that the company is poised to directly benefit from the president-elect's proposed tariffs. I think this anticipation is warranted.
Granted, CSX noted in its annual 10-K regulatory filing that increased tariffs "could result in reduced import and export volumes." Roughly 40% of the company's intermodal revenue is international. So, why could CSX be a winner as a result of Trump's tariffs?
For one thing, many importers will almost certainly "frontload" shipments (i.e., accelerate inbound shipments from other countries into the U.S.). This should boost CSX's business over the short term, even before Trump takes office.
Also, intermodal made up only around 14% of CSX's total revenue during the first three quarters of 2024. International intermodal revenue is in the ballpark of 5.5% of total revenue. During Trump's first term, CSX passed along the higher costs associated with tariffs to its customers. It will likely do so again with a broader tariff program.
Importantly, most of the company's revenue comes from domestic shipments. CSX's domestic business would likely increase as companies scramble to source products from the U.S. rather than international manufacturers.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT 0.01%) is a large trucking and logistics company based in Arkansas. It has a significant intermodal business with the biggest drayage fleet in North America. J.B. Hunt's other operations include dedicated contract services focused on private fleet conversion, integrated capacity solutions that broker third-party transporters, and the largest final-mile network in the U.S.
Shares of J.B. Hunt spiked after the presidential race was called in Trump's favor last week. It wasn't alone. Several other trucking stocks enjoyed nice gains on the news.
Generally speaking, what's good for U.S. railroad operators like CSX is also good for J.B. Hunt. Half of J.B. Hunt's revenue in Q3 stemmed from its intermodal business, which takes containers to and from railcars via 18-wheeler trucks.
If implemented, Trump's tariffs should boost domestic shipping via rail, thereby increasing J.B. Hunt's intermodal revenue. The company's other segments could also benefit from increased shipment volume in the U.S.
Steel Dynamics (STLD 0.01%) is one of the largest steel producers and metal recyclers in the U.S. The company manufactures steel products, sells recycled metals, and fabricates steel joists and deck products.
Both Trump, in his first term, and President Biden imposed tariffs on steel imported from China. Those tariffs have helped Steel Dynamics to some extent. However, the company's Q3 financial performance was weaker than Q2, in part because of lower steel prices resulting from increased import volume from countries other than China.
Steel Dynamics and several other organizations await decisions by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission about applying antidumping duties on imports of corrosion-resistant flat-rolled steel from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. Regardless of the outcome of these cases, Trump's tariffs could provide Steel Dynamics even greater protection.
While Steel Dynamics is poised to benefit from those tariffs, I think the stock would perform well over the long run even without them. The company consistently delivers strong free cash flow and profits, and it's gaining market share in a highly competitive business.
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