I recently calculated how much it would have taken to become a millionaire by investing in Nvidia (NVDA +5.93%) stock 10 years ago. The answer was a shockingly low $3,625 at the time I crunched the numbers. Because Nvidia's shares have risen over the last few days, the magic amount is even lower now.
In my backward-looking exercise, I also examined what signs might have pointed to Nvidia's potential for massive gains. And there were some good indications about the company's prospects for anyone looking closely.
But what about Nvidia's prospects now? Where will the company and its stock be in 10 years? I won't pretend to have any definitive answers. However, I'll take a stab at where I think Nvidia will be in 2035.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
A prediction of Nvidia's future
The most important assumption I have about Nvidia's future is that we've only seen the tip of the iceberg with how artificial intelligence (AI) will impact the world. I suspect more of the iceberg will be visible relatively soon, though, with the adoption of AI agents that can perform tasks autonomously.
Could artificial general intelligence (AGI) be achieved within the next 10 years? Probably, depending on how you define AGI. I agree with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that AI models will be able to pass any test that humans can in five years or less. I wouldn't go as far as predicting AI systems will be sentient (a criterion some have for AGI) by 2035, though.
I fully expect Nvidia to remain a central player in AI over the next decade and beyond. The company's new Blackwell GPU architecture -- which has the most powerful AI capabilities to date -- will likely seem painfully slow and unwieldy compared to what Nvidia will roll out 10 years from now.
My future picture of Nvidia includes the company aggressively expanding into areas such as developing custom AI chips. I also think the autonomous ride-hailing market (robotaxis) will explode over the next few years, with Nvidia as one of the top beneficiaries.
While AI is Nvidia's biggest opportunity, in my opinion, I believe the company will also see tremendous growth thanks to the adoption of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR). AR and VR applications will require powerful graphics processors -- and no company is better at it than Nvidia.
What could go wrong?
Murphy's Law can affect even the best companies. What could go wrong and derail my admittedly upbeat prediction about Nvidia's future? Several things.
Competition in the AI chip market will almost certainly increase significantly over the next 10 years. I expect Advanced Micro Devices will further step up its game. I'll also keep my eyes on Nvidia's big customers who have developed their own AI chips, including Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft.
Perhaps the most worrisome competition, though, could come from major technological breakthroughs by rivals. Nvidia's Huang caused quantum computing stocks to plunge recently with his comments that practical quantum computers are probably 15 to 30 years away. That could be wishful thinking. I can envision a scenario where another company develops a quantum computer that's more powerful for training and deploying AI models than Nvidia's GPUs.
As successful as it is (and I think will continue to be), Nvidia isn't immune to macroeconomic factors. If the global economy enters into a deep, prolonged recession, the chipmaker might not grow nearly as much as I expect it will.
I'd also be remiss without acknowledging that my optimism about the future of AI could be too pie in the sky. Maybe large language models (LLMs) could hit a performance plateau, with no better technologies emerging.
The multitrillion-dollar question
So far, I've only addressed where I think Nvidia's business will be in 2035. But the multitrillion-dollar question is: Where will Nvidia stock be in 10 years?
Before I attempt to answer this question, I'll tell you what I don't think will happen. Over the last 10 years, Nvidia's share price has skyrocketed nearly 285 times higher. I don't see the stock delivering anywhere near that kind of return over the next decade.
However, as mentioned, I foresee major growth opportunities for Nvidia over the next 10 years in AI, robotaxis, and AR/VR. Could Nvidia's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) be at least 15% during this period? I think it's possible. If we assume a 15% CAGR, the stock would be a four-bagger by 2035, with a market cap of over $14 trillion.
Admittedly, this prediction could be way too optimistic. But even if Nvidia delivers a much lower CAGR of 8%, its stock would more than double over the next decade and give the company a market cap of more than $7 trillion. Unless an unforeseen threat emerges that takes the wind out of Nvidia's sails, the GPU maker's future appears to be very bright.
