The S&P 500 (^GSPC 2.05%) is considered the single best gauge for the overall U.S. stock market. The index is down about 1% year to date, and Wall Street analysts expect little change in the remaining months of 2025.

However, Tom Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors predicts the S&P 500 will reach 15,000 by 2030. That implies 158% upside from its current level of 5,800. Investors can position their portfolios to capture those potential gains by owning shares of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 1.97%).

Read on to learn more.

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The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF provides exposure to hundreds of influential stocks

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF tracks the performance of 500 large U.S. companies. It includes stocks from every market sector, but is most heavily weighted toward technology. The index fund covers about 80% of domestic equities and 50% of global equities by market value, providing exposure to many of the most influential stocks in the world.

These are the top 10 positions in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF listed by weight:

  1. Apple: 6.7%
  2. Microsoft: 6.2%
  3. Nvidia: 5.6%
  4. Amazon: 3.6%
  5. Alphabet: 3.5%
  6. Meta Platforms: 2.5%
  7. Berkshire Hathaway: 2.1%
  8. Broadcom: 1.9%
  9. Tesla: 1.6%
  10. Eli Lilly: 1.5%

The S&P 500 advanced 173% in the last decade, compounding at 10.5% annually. If dividends are included, the index achieved a total return of 226% over the same period, increasing at 12.5% annually. At that pace, $500 invested monthly during the last 10 years would now be worth more than $105,000.

Importantly, while the U.S. economy suffered three recessions over the last 30 years, the S&P 500 generated a positive return over every rolling 11-year period during that time. Put differently, any investor that bought an S&P 500 index fund in the last three decades made a profit so long as they held the fund for at least 11 years.

Why Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee thinks the S&P 500 is headed to 15,000 by 2030

Tom Lee is the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He manages the Fundstrat Granny Shots U.S. Large Cap ETF, an exchange-traded fund that holds about three dozen U.S. stocks worth at least $10 billion. Lee selects stocks by identifying market themes and applying quantitative models to companies that meet the inclusion criteria. The Granny Shots ETF has beat the S&P 500 by 4 percentage points since its inception.

Lee during an interview with Bloomberg last year made his case for why the S&P 500 could hit 15,000 by the end of the decade. First, millennials are the largest living generation and they are reshaping the economy as the enter their peak earnings years. In addition, they are set to inherit a whopping $80 trillion, the largest generational wealth transfer in history.

Second, the global labor shortage is estimated to be 80 million workers by 2030. That should create demand for artificial intelligence (AI) as a means of boosting productivity and automating workflows. Consequently, Lee anticipates a parabolic move in the technology sector, which currently accounts for 30% of the S&P 500.

"Between 1948 and 1967 there was a global labor shortage and technology stocks went parabolic," Lee says. "And between 1991 and 1999 there was global labor shortage and technology stocks went parabolic. So this is what's happening today."

Here is the bottom line: Whether Lee is correct or not in predicting the S&P 500 will reach 15,000 by 2030, the index has consistently created wealth over long holding periods. That makes an S&P 500 index fund a smart choice for patient investors. And the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is a particularly brilliant option because it has a cheap expense ratio of 0.03%. The average expense ratio on similar funds from other issuers is 0.75%, according to Vanguard.