In this Rule Breaker Investing podcast, Motley Fool analysts Jason Moser and Loren Horst step into the ring with Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner to guess (and second-guess) the value of some amazing (some of them amazingly boring) stocks.
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A full transcript is below.
This podcast was recorded on June 18, 2025.
David Gardner: The price per share of a stock tells you almost nothing. It's the price to buy one share of the stock. But how many shares does the company have outstanding? Well, in math, we multiply two multiplicands together, but the price per share is only one multiplicand. If you don't know the other, you can't do any meaningful math or figure out much of the world around you. Well, Fools with a capital F know that you need to know the shares outstanding, and then multiply that by the price per share. Now you know the actual full value of the company. It's full price tag, it's market capitalization, market cap. Well, to teach this lesson inexorably and unforgettably, we invented a game. That's what I do. The date was August 9, 2017. The Market Cap Game Show was born, and we've been playing every quarter since, and you're playing, too. I designed it that way so you can play along against my guest stars, against your spouse or partner. Against your kids. Can you outscore my talented contestants? It's that time of the quarter again 10 new stocks, three guest stars, Jason Moser, Loren Horst, and you. Only on this week's Rule Breaker Investing.
Welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. This is the Market Cap Game Show. Played here in June 2025 for the 36th time. We have two rookies joining us here for game number 36. Well, first timers to the game, but it would be silly to call them rookies when this week's two contestants are both long time Fools. You'll get to know Jason Moser and Loren Horst a lot better in the next hour, and you'll get to know ten stocks better too. Now, of course, the third player, and to us the most important is you. That's right, you, our dear fellow Foolish listener, as we begin to crank up our signature Market Cap Game Show music. Let me just briefly remind especially new listeners, new players. I'll be mentioning a stock. Neither Jason nor Loren knows what stock is coming. I'll turn to one of them, and that Fool will do his best to state a numerical range within which the market cap falls. The other contestant and you playing at home will simply say, I agree. Meaning it's accurate, the stock's value falls inside that range. Or I disagree. I think it's outside the stated range. You simply agree or disagree. If you get it right, give yourself a plus one. That's the Market Cap Game Show. We're focused on the real market caps of real stocks. Nobody knows what's coming. Perfect score would be 10. Let me introduce our first contestant for stock Number 1. Originally from South Carolina, Jason Moser got his BA in Economics from Wafford College and lives in Fairfax Station, Virginia, with his wife and two college student daughters. As a senior analyst, he's been with The Motley Fool since 2010, serving on the investing team working to make our Fools around the world smarter, happier, and richer. Jason, welcome.
Jason Moser: Very happy to be here. Thanks for having me.
David Gardner: Jason, it is your first Market Cap Game Show. When were you most recently a rookie at something?
Jason Moser: Gee whiz. At my age, that's tricky to say. I guess, [LAUGHTER] technically, now, I think I've played golf for pretty much all my life.
David Gardner: You're pretty good at it.
Jason Moser: Well, so thank you. Some days are better than others. I guess technically I've entered a new stage of life recently. I'm 52-years-old now, and that qualifies me as a senior golfer in the eyes of the Virginia State Golf Association. Last year, I decided to try to go and qualify for the Virginia Senior Amateur championship, and that was fun. I enjoyed playing competitive golf growing up. I ended up going through the qualifier and qualifying, so I got to play in the Virginia State Senior Amateur championship last year. That was the first time I played in it.
David Gardner: You're a rookie.
Jason Moser: I guess, technically, yeah. I played golf all my life. That was the first time I'd ever played in any a senior championship. It was a lot of fun. I got a lot of great experience, and hopefully it serves me well for many of my golden years to come.
David Gardner: Well, that's really fantastic, Jason. Let's shift now to stock number 1. On a scale of just throw on whatever's clean to curate my outfit meticulously. Jason, how would you describe your personal approach to getting dressed each morning?
Jason Moser: Pretty much just whatever's available. I don't think too hard about it anymore. Working from home has changed my behavior a little bit, and a lot of times it's just a pair of slacks and some t-shirts.
David Gardner: Thanks for coming into Fool HQ studios today with pants on.
Jason Moser: I'm thrilled to be here. It's always nice to come back home.
David Gardner: Have you ever trusted someone else to pick out your clothes for you, Jason? If so, did they make you feel more confident or make you immediately want your money back?
Jason Moser: I trust my wife completely. She buys a lot of my clothes for me. As a matter of fact, for Father's Day, she bought me a couple of really nice golf shirts, and I love them.
David Gardner: Beautiful. Well, stock number 1 is Stitch Fix, ticker symbol SFIX Stitch Fix an online personal styling service that sends curated clothing selections to subscribers, like me, by the way, guys, I'm one of them, based on our style preferences and feedback offering a tailored wardrobe without the hassle. Stitch Fix is the market cap we're thinking about, and, oh, my gosh, it's throwdown time. Pencils out Fools Jason and Loren will now write down their best market cap range for a Stitch Fix. Once they share their ranges, players at home, just pick the contestant you think made the better guess. You simply say Jason or Loren, and if you're right, score a point. Now, if only one of them gets the market cap range right, by the way, of course, he gets the point. But if both of them are right, the contestant with the tighter range will take the point. If they're both wrong, well, of course, that would never happen on this show, but I don't even remember it ever happening even once ever on this show. But, for instance, if that did happen, whoever's closer to the actual market cap with their nearest parameter will get the plus one. We do this twice every show. Let's do it. Stock number 1 is Stitch Fix, ticker symbol SFIX. I'm going to turn back to Jason. Jason, what is your best guess here at Stitch Fix?
Jason Moser: I am going with 675 million to 820.
David Gardner: Six seventy five to 820 million. Loren, we haven't even introduced you yet, and we're already talking. We'll do that in a sec, but let's go right now to your call for Stitch Fix's Throwdown market cap.
Loren Horst: Well, David, I do agree with Jason that this is a micro cap. I do believe it's less than a billion, and my range is a little bit wider than his. I did 475-900 million.
David Gardner: Four hundred and seventy five to $900 million. Guys, those are both excellent guesses. Listeners at home, it's time to say, do you agree with Jason, or do you agree with Loren? If you agreed with Loren, give yourself a plus one. That slightly more generous range that you gave yourself, Loren was, in fact, enough to take it. The market cap for Stitch Fix by the way, all of these were fixed at noon, Tuesday, June 17, yesterday, for those who listen to this podcast as it comes out on each Wednesday at noon, it was $522.59 million. You're both right. It's a micro cap company at this point. It's not been a great stock pick. We'll talk about that in a sec. But, Loren, you said 475-900, 522 fits within that range. Jason went a little high, going a little tight. I like the ambition there, Jason. Just weeks ago, it probably was within that market cap range. The stock has been volatile.
This company came public in 2017. It was around $15 a share eight years ago. Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers two services that I really love, both liked it in 2018 in the mid 20s. Do you remember that COVID spike when we all thought we'd be working from home forever, even though some of us are seemingly still working from home forever. Maybe you would just have your clothes delivered to you. That saw Stitch Fix stock spike up to about $90 a share in early 2021. The fall of 2022, it dropped below, get this five dollars a share, where it's pretty much stayed ever since rattling around four dollars a share. Stanford Grad and Harvard MBA Katrina Lake founded this company in 2011. She stepped down as CEO August of 2021. The business was originally called Rack Habit, Jason, which is a better name in your mind? Rack Habit or Stitch Fix.
Jason Moser: Stitch Fix, clearly.
David Gardner: I agree.
Jason Moser: It's just indubitably Stitch Fix. [LAUGHTER]
David Gardner: Well, let's move on to stock number 2. Again, if you said Loren, give yourself a plus one, Loren, you're up one nothing, and I'm now turning to you. Loren Horst is an investment analyst at the Motley Fool working primarily on the team Rule Breakers side of our Flagship Stock Advisor Service. His time at The Fool started as a temp on our members services team a decade ago, followed by a stint as a product manager, working behind the scenes on many of our Motley Fool services. You can find Loren sharing his thoughts and encouraging newbies in our community as TMF Loren Horst, he holds a degree in Economics. Are you guys both econ majors?
Loren Horst: I know.
David Gardner: Oh, my gosh. [OVERLAPPING] I'm an English major. I initially selected Econ as my intended major. But I just found the Keynesian graphs, the classes, the way it taught at my school was just boring. I know it was more interesting at Wofford and Allegheny than it was at North Carolina because I was just, I'll take a few of these courses. I'm not majoring in Econ.
Loren Horst: I'll be honest, the most impactful economic class I took in college was Econ 010 Personal Finance. If you don't have an economics background, that doesn't mean you can't be a good investor.
David Gardner: Well said. Let's hope that's the case. Loren, also worth noting, you reside in Washington DC with your wife. You enjoy video games, as do I and rewatching 90s cartoons, let's stick with video games for a sec. What do you play?
Loren Horst: Right now, I'm currently replaying some of the games of my youth. I'm a very nostalgic person, as we said, with the 90s cartoons. I'm replaying the Assassin Screed series.
David Gardner: That's a big series to replay, since there are so many of them at this point. Well, Loren, I've had Jason on a number of times in the past, including telling his story a few years ago, which was one worth listening to. Again, I think it was with Matt Argsing. It was 2021. But, Loren, this is your Rule Breaker Investing podcast debut. You've been passionate about investing since you first came to our company. You mentioned starting in member services. What did you learn picking up the phones and answering calls from people calling in to talk to the Motley Fool?
Loren Horst: I think the most important thing is that there are so many different types of investors. And obviously, as the Motley Fool, that Motley concept really leads into the fact there's not one right answer for everyone. Since we work here on the publishing side, we can't give personalized advice. It was really important just to try to figure out what members were looking for and then make sure that they had all their options. I always like to try to explain to members what we believe because a lot of people come to us thinking, we have to get rich quick, we have to find the right price at the right time and not hold our winners, and being able to have those conversations with them is what really made me a Foolish investor for long.
David Gardner: Well we've been really fortunate to have you doing those conversations, and now as an analyst on our investment team, having them more about stocks. But that experience, Loren, of just talking with anybody who's calling up who's maybe thinking of canceling their Motley Fool service because one of my stock picks went down or they're occasionally thanking us for, I don't know, five or 10 years. What a great experience for so many of our people who've moved on in different places. Often they started member services at our company. You're a great example. When you think about Rule Breaker Investing, Loren Horst, what are a few of the classic Rulebreaker stocks that come to mind for you?
Loren Horst: Well, certainly, right now, I think the King of the Hill is INVIDIA. There were also, for many of the 2010s Amazon and Netflix duking it out as what was our most successful recommendation in history. Those winners that kept winning the ones that we didn't only or speaking for you, specifically, you didn't only recommend 20 years ago, but you held that entire time and let them compound that entire time. Those are the quintessential rulebreakers.
David Gardner: Well, thank you. And while you didn't mention this one, admittedly, it's not as well known as Invidia or Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, in a lot of ways, is a classic Rule Breakers stock right there in the Rulebreakers service. Again, a lot of Fools may know this, but when I sort of put this out there a cocktail parties in the World large, many people have never even heard of Intuitive Surgical, but it's DaVinci surgical Robots system allows surgeons to perform complex procedures with precision controlled instruments. It's revolutionized minimally invasive surgery worldwide. It started with prostatectomies, so the removal of the male prostate gland, it's become so much more than that. I often think, won't all surgery in time maybe become robotic surgery? This company remains beautifully positioned, but enough about the company, Loren Horst. Let's talk about the market cap. We're returning to our normal format where I'm simply going to ask you your range, and then Jason and listeners at home will agree or disagree. Loren Horst, what is your market cap range for Intuitive Surgical?
Loren Horst: I have not studied this company that closely, but I do know if not the, it is one of the most successful highest performing recommendations in the history of your Rule Breaker service. I'm trying to take that into account. My guess is going to be 130-$185 billion.
David Gardner: One hundred and thirty billion to $185 billion. Jason, have you ever looked at this stock?
Jason Moser: I have. I've looked at it. It's a recommendation back when we had our immersive technology service stand-alone intuitive uses a lot of immersive technology for jacking and helm and whatnot.
David Gardner: You studied it back then. Have you looked at the market cap recently? [LAUGHTER].
Jason Moser: I must confess I have not.
David Gardner: Well, players at Home and Jason Moser, Loren said 130-$185 billion. The question then, Jason, and listeners is, do you want to agree or disagree with Loren's market cap?
Jason Moser: I'm going to disagree.
David Gardner: Listeners at home? You said it, and you should have agreed. We're talking about really really close here. I could have seen it either way. The market cap for Intuitive Surgical is $184.18 billion just a little bit. Just us within Loren's. Rather generous range. There's $55 billion you gave people to play with there, but it was right near the top of that range. This company was first picked in Rule Breakers March 16th of 2005 at four dollars and 91 cents. Now that it's somewhere around 519 or it's 100 bagger, and I really appreciate you pointing out, Loren, that the only way you're ever going to get 100 bagger is if you hold it. If you hold it long enough to enjoy 100 bagger, and I really do believe everyone can have a 100 bagger. I don't think there's any particular magic to it other than something you guys know so well as longtime fellow Fools. By to hold. Well, Loren, you're up two nothing. Let's move on to stock number 3. Jason, when you think about companies changing their pricing models, do any come to mind?
Jason Moser: I guess, technically, they did change their pricing model. Netflix, back in the day, very simple one price, here's a subscription, whatnot. Through time, they've definitely introduced a number of different tiers. I think the biggest change was when they introduced the ad supported pricing model. That really did change the economics of the business in a lot of ways. That's one that stands out.
David Gardner: That's a great example. It really is a radical thing for companies, especially at scale, that are public companies to change their pricing models for customers. It takes leadership. It takes a willingness to take risk, and it doesn't always work. Stock Number 3, it's not gone great for Unity Software. Ticker symbol. It's one of those one letter ticker symbols, U. Unity Software, a leading platform for creating and operating real time 3D content, Loren Horst, video games, for example, ARVR experiences, Interactive Media. A lot of developers have used Unity over the years to make the games an entertainment that we enjoy. But the company, we'll talk about this in a second, changed its pricing model a couple of years ago. People in that industry were not happy. We're not particularly happy with that. Stock has not done great. More importantly, though, it's time to find out what Jason Moser thinks the market cap of Unity Software, ticker symbol, U. Your range, Jason, for Ticker symbol, U.
Jason Moser: I'm going to go $2.2-3.2 billion.
David Gardner: $2.2-3.2 billion. Loren, is this stock you've looked at at all?
Loren Horst: I haven't followed it closely. Now, I do own shares.
David Gardner: [Laughs] This is seemingly would give you some image.
Loren Horst: We'll see I would follow it closely if that were the case. I know that both team Hidden Gems and team Rulebreakers in Stock Advisor recommended. There has been a lot of conviction at different times there. As I mentioned, this is one that I own, but I think I own dozens of dollars worth of it, so it's one of my smaller positions, and I haven't followed it closely. But I do believe that Jason's on the low side. I think it's a little bit higher, so I'm going to say outside the range.
David Gardner: Loren has said, outside the range, listeners at home, it's time for you to agree or disagree with Jason. You said it. Indeed, if you disagreed, that was the right call here. Jason did go low. Probably a stock that Jason doesn't own. In a way, while Loren wins, it gets the point. Jason, you might win by not owning the stock because it has been an underperformer.
Jason Moser: I must confess, I do own a handful of shares that shoots a number of years back, but like Loren, it's just a small handful of shares to begin with. I'm typically a lazy investor. I do a lot of [inaudible] . I just hang on and just keep on living.
David Gardner: Absolutely.
Jason Moser: Yeah, it's one that obviously hadn't performed as well as we'd hoped.
David Gardner: Well I first picked it on October 22nd of 2020, and ill wind blew that day, I guess. It was just over $100 a share. Was it at 101? By the summer of 2023, it was at 50. By the year end after the company announced it was changing its pricing based on basically how many download counts. Games and other forms of interactive media would get. If what you created with our tools gets downloaded a ton, you're going to pay us more. That shift in how Unity was being paid was received very negatively by people who said stuff like, well, what if people artificially pump up the download numbers? Where did those come from? By the end of that year, CEO John Riccitiello had stepped down from the company last August, it touched $14 a year. Again, I picked it at a 101 ouch. I am happy to say it's rallied back to about 24 as of today, maybe you guys would know that with the few shares that you have. But the market cap of Unity software cutting to the chase here is $9.94 billion. Right about $10 billion, so well ahead of Jason's range. Jason, this is where I remind everyone that I'm glad I don't have to play this game I would not have done very well with Unity software. It is bigger, though. In a lot of ways, it's an outsized brand. It's something, especially if you're a gamer, you see Unity pop up and the credits that help make this game, you see a lot of it. There are a lot of developers who still use Unity.
Loren Horst: Something surprising about Unity is there's a piece of its business that overlaps with that of AppLovin, another stock advisor recommendation.
David Gardner: That's right.
Loren Horst: It might be surprising if you were to go onto our site and search our scorecard by Market Cap. You might see that AppLovin's 10 or 12 times as large.
David Gardner: Yeah. I think that they had a merger agreement that they were in position for some years ago that ended up [inaudible] . Yeah. Well, Loren, you were bringing some savvy your knowledge of our scorecards and up and down, answering a lot of questions for other people being there in the community teaching nubs has led you to a three nothing lead here as we move on to Stock Number 4. Turning now to you, Loren Horst, ever been to New Mexico?
Loren Horst: I don't believe I have.
David Gardner: Why not?
Loren Horst: I would say generally because I don't know anyone who's had a wedding there yet.
David Gardner: [Laughs] Good answer. Breaking Bad was set in New Mexico.
Loren Horst: Was it?
David Gardner: Yeah, was it? Like outside Albuque.
Jason Moser: Albuquerque, ABQ It to go to New Mexico back in the day with the Boy Scouts. We went to camp Film on there.
David Gardner: Nice.
Jason Moser: Beautiful state.
David Gardner: Well, this may serve you well. We'll see, Jason. I am turning to Loren for this one, but ultimately, it's going to be your agree or disagree that gives you the point here. Let's keep talking about this company, but now from another angle. Loren, have you ever invested using a merger arbitrage strategy?
Loren Horst: Where I was looking specifically at a potential acquisition target.
David Gardner: Yeah, or more to the point here, this particular company is in the process of merging. One of our services ultimate income overseen by Matt Argersinger or one of our services has recommended this stock because he's like, Hey, it still remains under the price where it's going to be acquired, and they're going to keep paying dividends. It's the ultimate income service. For that reason, TXNM Energy guys want to guess the ticker symbol?
Jason Moser: TXNM.
David Gardner: You nailed it. TXNM. Energy is Stock Number 4. Now, this is also my opportunity to remind everybody, I randomize from our top 500 stocks of most interest from all of our members. That's why Jason and Loren have no idea what's coming, and I myself sometimes know nothing about the companies that we're playing with. This would be one of them. But I always do a little bit of due diligence, read, learn. That's what we're all doing. Intellectual curiosity helps us as investors. TXNM Energy is a publicly traded utility holding company that serves approximately 800,000 customers across New Mexico and Texas, as you might imagine, TX. That's the TX part. It was previously known as PNM Resources. It's now positioning itself for midstream energy growth under its modern name and it is being bought out by Blackstone Energy. We'll talk a little bit more about merger arbitrage and a sec, but let's get to the main question here, Loren Horst, which is, what is your stated market cap range for a company you may just be discovering, as we speak, TXNM Energy?
Loren Horst: I'll be honest, I have not heard of this one before, and one of the fun parts as a longtime listener of this game show is hearing about a company for the very first time and then learning that it's worth $200 billion. But even though this is one, if it's in the energy sector, you would have to assume there's a lot of capital outlays, that there's a lot of investment in that. It can't be too small. But because I haven't heard of it, I'm going to throw out a guess here of $9-17 billion.
David Gardner: $9-17 billion. Jason, have you been to New Mexico?
Jason Moser: Yes.
David Gardner: You just said it. Can you say the context again? Summer Camp?
Jason Moser: Yeah, well, I was in the Boy Scouts growing up, and there is a camp out there called Camp Philmont, so any folks who've been in the scouts, they would be familiar with that name, I'm sure, but it's a couple of weeks of just hiking throughout the New Mexico mountains and roughing it. It was just an amazing experience. I remember to this day.
David Gardner: That's fantastic. You weren't paying a utility bill, though at the.
Jason Moser: No, we didn't have any utilities other than our campfires.
David Gardner: [Laughs] Well said. Well, Loren went with $9-17 billion. Listeners at home. Jason Moser, do you want to agree with Loren's range or disagree with Loren's range?
Jason Moser: Yeah, I've got zero file on this company, so no clue.
David Gardner: I suspect many listeners are feeling you right now.
Jason Moser: I'm going to err on the side of it. Maybe being a little bit bigger. I'm going to disagree and think it might just be a little bit larger, given the nature of the.
David Gardner: Well, listeners at home, Jason has disagreed, and you've made your call, and if you with Jason disagreed, give yourself a plus one. Now, somewhat ironically, Jason, you were on the wrong side. Yet you still get a +1, which is one of the reasons I love the market cap, game show. You should, too. The actual market cap for ticks and Energy is $5.23 billion, a smaller company, not a well known company and not a very populous area. It does have some of Texas that it serves. But yeah, ultimate income, put out a buy on this stock last with an event driven thesis. It's being bought up by Blackstone Energy, a subsidiary of that massive asset management firm. Matt likes the spread between the present price where it is today and the higher buyout price. It still needs to go through a review to see if it's acceptable as a merger. But the company has committed to keep paying its dividend for as long as necessary until the merger is consummated, which Matt also likes. Our Palin colleague Matt Argersinger says, there's about an 8.5% expected return annualized from this, and therefore, ultimate income put out a buy some weeks ago on TXNM energy. Yeah, a merger arbitrage strategy.
Jason Moser: I love it. I'm always looking for one of two things, either a short term catalyst or a long term trend. Most of the time, it's a long term trend, given the nature of how we invest. But I think it's really cool to find those short term catalysts. That's a perfect example of a short term catalyst.
David Gardner: Thank you. And that's very well said.
Loren Horst: On the other hand, there's a reason why this is called picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. There's a point where if there's a known buyout price that is 5, 10, 15% higher than where the shares are currently trading, there's definitely an opportunity there. Once it gets to maybe 1 or 2%, that's where I start to lose interest.
David Gardner: Yeah. Well, this continues to be right around where Matt recommended it, so he would still see what looks like an attractive. There is a chance the merger doesn't go through, at which point it would fall back some, no doubt. But I think he likes the underlying business, as well. I know Jason likes this company more than 10 minutes ago because it just gave him his first point here. It's Loren, three. Jason, one. Let's move on to Stock Number 5. Jason, what's a good boring company whose stock you favor and or with which you've made some good money over time?
Jason Moser: Boring. I will go with my most recent purchase dap. I think you'll appreciate this Waste Management.
David Gardner: Love it.
Jason Moser: Trash is everywhere. It's boring, but, man, I'll tell you, this company owns the market, largest network of landfills in the country, and the barriers to entry are very high. There's a lot of regulatory red tape to get through, and waste management has really impressed me. I was happy to add it to my retirement portfolio and keep adding to that and just enjoy those dividends.
David Gardner: That's great, Jason. Yeah, it'll come back one or two more times for this particular market cap game show, but boring stocks, stocks that people don't necessarily get excited about on CNBC or on the Wall Street Journal. But in our portfolios, buying and holding, some of these companies really rack up impressive returns. I was just thinking about, what's another example of boring for me, Casey's General Stores. Like 711 in the Middle West and Texas. That company has been a six bagger over the last 10 years. It was a phenomenal return. I know a lot of people, especially in the Midwest, know and love Casey's, but many others would ever have heard of it or think. Is that a stock that I would buy? Waste management, much bigger, Casey's smaller. Let's go to Stock Number 5, Old Dominion Freight Line. This is a top US provider of lighter than truckload shipping. Specifically, what that means is this company's buttered its bread for decades by not filling up the truck. It's like taking little bits and putting something there and something there in the back of the truck. It's not even full, but it's going multiple places to drop those things off and the logistics of that and to do that profitably is not easy, and they're hard to compete with because they do it so well. That's a brief overview of the less than truckload LTL shipping. Moving freight efficiently across the country with a reputation for reliability and service. I don't know if this affects your guess here, Jason, but it's worth pointing out this company has been, I think the Major League baseball official trucking company for a while. It's based in Winchester, Virginia, but I don't want to give too much more information because I'm about to quiz you the market cap of Old Dominion Freight Line Ticker symbol ODFL.
Jason Moser: Yeah, another one I just have no file on, but it sounds like they do it.
David Gardner: It's boring.
Jason Moser: Darn good job. Boring. I'm going to go with $13-18 billion.
David Gardner: $13-18 billion. Loren, what's the closest you've ever gotten to the trucking industry?
Loren Horst: I've driven next to them on the highway.
David Gardner: Arm motion to get them to pull?
Loren Horst: There was a time.
David Gardner: The horn. There was a kid you pump in the arm? Yeah. How about Old Dominion Freight Line? Is this a stock you have in the Hurst portfolio?
Loren Horst: No. It is one that we do recommend on the team rule Breaker side of Stock Advisor. I have not looked closely. I do believe it's one that has been maybe it's not been public very long. I think it's a third generation family company. There's a question of how large could it have grown over all that time and with Jason's range, what was it again?
David Gardner: $13-18 billion.
Loren Horst: I think he's close on the high side.
David Gardner: Listeners at home, Loren Horst, do you want to agree with his 13-18 or disagree?
Loren Horst: I think I'm going to agree with Jason.
David Gardner: Well, you shouldn't. This is a bigger company than maybe any of us was thinking. Ticker symbol ODFL, it's Market Caps, $33.52 billion. It's actually down some from its highest highs. But, yeah, this is a very substantial company, and I'm glad you mentioned Loren, the multiple generations. In fact, the year was 1934 when husband and wife, Earl and Lillian Congdon founded the company with a single straight truck. By the way, I looked up with straight truck. Do you guys know what straight trucks are? I didn't know what that phrase meant.
Jason Moser: The opposite of a crooked one, I would imagine. Is it a truck that maybe isn't on a trailer?
David Gardner: That's correct. It's one that doesn't have a trailer. It's just the truck. It's a straight truck. It's not tagging anything behind it. Anyway, a single straight truck operating between Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia. Here we are 91 years later, Market Cap, $33.52 billion. This is a stock I first picked at $27.69. It was May of 2017 today around 159. It's been a five bagger here in the roughly eight years that Motley Fool Stock Advisor members might have held it. Of course, some fine stocks before we do, so I bet someone's listening right now. It's like, I've had that stock longer than David has. What a fantastic company, I love celebrating. That's what we're doing a little bit with Stock Number 5, boring companies, companies you haven't heard of and realizing, buy a few shares and hold, just like the Congdon family has done for a long time. Well, we're at halftime. It is Loren three, Jason two. Jason, you are on your horse.
Loren Horst: Don't call us Comeback.
David Gardner: Comeback Time. Well, in the past, we've had for our halftime marching bands, music concerts. But this year is special. It's 2025. As I shared at the start of the year, my 2025 book, Rule Breaker Investing is available for pre order now. After 30 years of stock picking, this is my magnum opus, a lifetime of lessons distilled into one definitive guide, and each week until the book launches on September 16th, I'm sharing a random excerpt. We break open the book to a random page, and I read a few sentences, and that's what we're doing for our halftime entertainment. Here's this week's Page Breaker preview. A few sentences about sports betting toward the end of the book. Sports betting by its nature is zero sum, and your expected return is always negative. The handicaps are set very effectively, whether we're talking about a 6.5 point favorite in basketball or 7-5 odds at a horse track. One better will win, the other will lose, and the house will always take its cut. Over time, almost all consistent sports betters lose money. What happens to those who consistently invest over time?
David Gardner: That's this week's page break preview to pre order my final word on stock picking shaped by three decades of market crushing success. Just type Rule Breaker Investing into amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com or wherever you shop for fine books. Thank you to everyone who's already pre-ordered, that means a lot to me. That's halftime. The score is Loren three, Jason two. Let's move on to Stock Number 6. Loren, do you happen to know what year the New York Stock Exchange opened? By the way, I had to look it up. It's fun.
Loren Horst: The origins of the exchange in New York is, Buttonwood Tree agreement in the late 1700s. But the actual formal exchange as it exists today, I'm going to say it's maybe 100-years-old, so I'm going to say, like, 1925-ish.
David Gardner: Fortunately, this is not being scored as part of the market cap, because it's much earlier. You did a great job with the origins, and in fact, the New York Stock Exchange opened in 1792.
Loren Horst: Did not know that.
David Gardner: The first stock traded, which is not Stock Number 6, but Stock Number 6 relates to this. That's why we're going here right now. The first stock traded was the Bank of New York. Today it's BNY Bank of New York Mellon Corp, first stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange. It was started by Alexander Hamilton. The bank had a monopoly on banking services in the city until this other upstart showed up the Bank of the Manhattan Company, which was founded by Aaron Burr, in 1799, the Bank of New York and Hamilton vigorously opposed its founding. We can talk about that in a little bit. But it's really fun to think about what are the companies that have been public for the longest? The three that have been public for the longest are all banks. The fourth, Colgate-Palmolive, which is founded in 1806, the fifth, Procter & Gamble, 1837. But Bank of New York was the first, but it's not the biggest. In fact, America's largest bank, which offers consumer banking, investment banking, asset management, and wealth management, all the things. Serving millions globally with a wide range of financial services, it is the world's fifth largest bank. It is America's largest bank. Ticker symbol JPM, JP Morgan Chase. We're going to go back to the history in a little bit, because it's fun. By the way, they're building a really big building. It's the JP Morgan Chase Building. I don't know if you guys have been in New York recently. It's at 270 Park Avenue, 1388 feet. It's pretty noticeable. Let's put it that way. But more importantly, Loren, let's go now to the market cap for America's largest bank, JP Morgan Chase. Ticker symbol JPM.
Loren Horst: At this point, I think I know how many digits there are, but I'm not sure where in the hundreds of billions this might fall. But if I had to guess, which is what's happening here, I'm going to say 440 billion to 640 billion.
David Gardner: Four hundred and forty billion dollars to $640 billion. Jason, do you bank with JP Morgan Chase? Do you have any relationship with this company?
Jason Moser: I do not. No, other than reading Jamie Diamond's annual letter.
Loren Horst: There you go.
Jason Moser: It's a fun company to follow, I guess, in that regard, but it's not one that I've ever owned, and we don't bank there.
Loren Horst: Nor I. What was the range again?
David Gardner: Four hundred and forty billion dollars to $640 billion.
Jason Moser: I feel like it might be a little lower. I'm going to disagree.
David Gardner: Listeners at home, Jason has disagreed. What do you want to do? 440-640 inside that range or outside that range? Say it. You committed. Hilariously, plus one for Jason, who was on the wrong side again but gets a point and ties the game 3-3, because the market cap of JP Morgan is $749.30 billion. Basically three quarters of a trillion. The world, by the way, I mentioned earlier, fifth largest bank, but this is the world's largest market cap for any bank. If you can hold all those things in your head JP Morgan, 749.30. Since Loren said 440-640, it was above Loren's range. Therefore, players at home, if you disagreed, give yourself a plus one. By the way, both Loren and Jason now have three. How you doing at home? We hope you're beating us.
Jason Moser: I'm going to stop qualifying my answers, by the way. It seems like it's not working.
David Gardner: You sounds so much smarter if you just say agree or disagree.
Loren Horst: Should I lose a point for getting it wrong with a $200 billion lounge.
David Gardner: That's not how this game works, but that's very humble of you. I appreciate that. It's interesting to see the predecessors of JP Morgan Chase, because their Bank of the Manhattan, which I'll mention in sec, which was found in 1799, but also Chemical Bank as part of it, 1824, JP Morgan was founded in 1871, Chase National Bank, 1877. All of those were rolled up eventually into what is America's largest bank today. Enjoy history. It's fun looking at really old companies. Sit with me around the fire kids for just two minutes here as we just do a little thing on the Chase Manhattan Bank formed upon the 1955 purchase of Chase by the Bank of the Manhattan Company, that's the one we're going to focus on now, which was established in 1799. That's the oldest predecessor here. The Bank of the Manhattan company, again, the creation of Aaron Burr who transformed the company from a water carrier into a bank. Now, according to page 115 of An Empire of Wealth by author John Steele Gordon, the origin of this strand of JP Morgan Chase's history runs as follows, and I quote, "At the turn of the 19th century, obtaining a bank charter required an act of the state legislature. This, of course, injected a powerful element of politics into the process and invited what today would be called corruption, but then was regarded as business as usual. Hamilton's political enemy, an eventual murderer Aaron Burr was able to create a bank by sneaking a clause into a charter for a company called the Manhattan Company to provide clean water to New York City. The innocuous looking clause allowed the company to invest surplus capital in any lawful enterprise. Within six months of the company's creation and long before it had laid a single section of water pipe, the company opened a bank, the Bank of the Manhattan Company, still in existence today. It is JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, and the rest is history for Hamilton and Burr." I assume I'm not the only one who's seen Hamilton the musical, guys?
Jason Moser: I haven't seen it.
Loren Horst: Love it.
David Gardner: Loved it. By the way, it's watchable, I think, on Disney+. It's a live look into it back with Lynn Lin, well, Miranda himself in it. Loren, you're reminded me he played Hamilton. Of course, he did. Many people played Hamilton since. You can see him play it in the Disney version for anybody who'd like to see. But anyway, a little bit of history. I'm about to turn back to Jason for Stock Number 7, but Loren a quick thought.
Loren Horst: It almost sounds like the first spec. You wanted this other business to be available, but you couldn't make it happen through the traditional means, and so you found the backdoor.
David Gardner: They never even laid a section of water pipe, and all of a sudden, they're a bank. Those special purpose acquisition companies, which there are still some of those today, but it was very much the rage, 5, 6, 7 years ago, Loren. A lot of companies found it a cheaper, quicker way to go public.
Loren Horst: Because of the filing requirements, they're allowed to be a lot more promotional whenever they talk about the future potential of the business than typical legalese you might see in a regular filling.
David Gardner: I think I have yet to ever have bought into a SPAC. Does either of you guys have some SPAC in your financial life?
Jason Moser: Well, I did. I tried one. I learned my lesson and spack me once. [inaudible] , whatever. But I'm not going to do it again.
Loren Horst: If I have, I've already forgotten about it.
David Gardner: Well, I'm not forgetting about the score, which is 3-3. Let's move on Stock Number 7. Jason Moser, we let off this market cap game show, as you may recall, with Stitch Fix, whose ticker symbol is SFIX. Jason, do you happen to know what company uses the ticker symbol, FIX?
Jason Moser: No.
David Gardner: Let me ask you this. Have you ever confidently tried to fix something yourself around the house and ended up making the situation dramatically less comfortable for everyone involved?
Jason Moser: No, I think I know my lane. I consider myself handy. There are things I can do. There are other things that I know I can't do. I really try to make sure I stay in my lane.
David Gardner: Well, given that you're handy and I'm not at all, I do remember once trying to fix a toilet in my first house 30 years ago, and it was in pieces on the floor as I welcomed the plumber.
Jason Moser: When it comes to plumbing, that's where I just say, you know what? I'm calling in the expert.
David Gardner: Well, Comfort Systems USA has the ticker symbol, FIX. It specializes in installing, maintaining and servicing HVAC systems for commercial and industrial clients, keeps buildings comfortable, energy efficient across North America. Tom Gardner, by the way, in his Moneyball portfolio, are crushing it with this stock, but we'll talk about that in a sec. Jay said, Comfort Systems USA. You don't need to call plumbers and electricians and HVAC people as often, it sounds like as I do because you're a little bit more handy than I. But if you ever need to, Comfort Systems USA might be your go to. More importantly, what is the market cap range for ticker symbol FIX?
Jason Moser: You said this is industrial HVAC?
David Gardner: I did include those words. I will put it out there for everybody. Loren and players at home too, for commercial and industrial clients.
Jason Moser: Those are big ticket clients. They're going to pay up for it.
David Gardner: It sounds like, Jason, like me, you didn't know much about this company before, right around now?
Jason Moser: I've not heard of it. I am going to go 28-$35 billion.
David Gardner: Twenty-eight billion to $35 billion. Players at home, I know some, I bet some of you actually work for Comfort Systems USA, but I know some of you will know this company better than we might and might use their services. I hope on not too regular a basis, Loren, have you ever looked at Comfort Systems, USA?
Loren Horst: I haven't. When you let in with Stitch Fix, I was really hoping you were going to go with Six Flags, ticker SIX because I at least know what fallpok that company is. On this one?
David Gardner: Well, Jason said 28 billion to 35 billion. Players at home. Loren?
Loren Horst: I'm going to play this one solely based upon my opponent, and I'm hoping he is not familiar with the stock because I certainly don't have any idea what the value of this company is, but I'm going to go outside the range because I think he gave a pretty tight range there.
David Gardner: Loren has disagreed, said outside that 28-$35 billion range. By the way, those are NFL. Those are football numbers, 28 and 35. I see you.
Loren Horst: Season's just around the corner.
David Gardner: There you go. Players at home, do you want to agree or disagree? Loren disagreed. If you disagree, give yourself a plus one because surely, none of us around this table, anyway at Fool HQ Studios really knew that much about this company. Tom Gardner in his Moneyball portfolio, though, I'm going to mention this in a sec, too. The market cap for this company is $17.69 billion, so well below, but not crazy. If we're counting digits, Loren, it's the same number of digits.
Loren Horst: [inaudible] magnitude off.
David Gardner: Exactly, 28 billion with lots of zeros. It's not that different from 17 lots of zeros. Give yourself, again, a plus one if you disagreed with Jason's range. Jason, do you feel inspired now to call up your HVAC guy? They're good at it.
Jason Moser: When you mentioned this, it reminds me of a company called Watsco, which serves more in the residential HVAC stuff. I believe that's still a recommendation. I think in Stock Advisor, it's been, I think, a tremendous performer over the years. But I just I never heard of this.
David Gardner: We can't know everything about every company. Am I right, guys?
Jason Moser: No, we can't.
David Gardner: We can't.
Jason Moser: Speaking of boring businesses.
David Gardner: It's true. Watsco, by the way, which is a company I've heard of, but never really looked at, I just Googled it. Watsco's market cap is 17.46 billion, which is basically the same size as Comfort Systems USA at 17.69 billion. This is maybe an oligopoly, but these companies are shoulder to shoulder right there with each other. One has an easier to remember ticker symbol, though, FIX. One of those companies that cutely decides to spell a word with its ticker symbol. Well, Loren, you disagreed plus one. We're Loren, four, Jason, three, as we hit the home stretch our final three stocks. Let me turn back Stock Number 8 to Loren. Loren, when you travel, what's your personal approach? Are you the person who gets to the airport with plenty of margin for error? Or do you treat boarding your flight like a daring precision operation?
Loren Horst: The variable is whether I'm traveling with my wife. Because if I'm going by myself. I can cut it close sometimes, but if I'm traveling with my wife, then we'll get there early, we'll go to the lounge. It'll be relaxing. It won't be an ordeal, and honestly, that's how most people should do it.
David Gardner: That sounds more stress free. Isn't that the life you mean to live.
Loren Horst: You would think that would be the default if I were operating on my own.
David Gardner: I think a lot of us can relate. Loren, while you're settling into your seat, do you ever pause to appreciate all the ridiculously expensive, tiny little gadgets and gizmos that are secretly holding that airplane together, or is ignorance bliss at cruising altitude?
Loren Horst: It is one of those situations where I would like to believe that everything is designed and precise and working and not being chosen from its supplier because it was the lowest bidder. I like to believe in the system and not think too hard about it.
David Gardner: Well, TransDigm Group, ticker symbol TDG, is a major supplier of highly engineered aerospace components, thinking about stuff like flight control systems, pump specialized fasteners, used on commercial and military aircraft worldwide, and its business model focuses on aftermarket sales, proprietary parts. It helps the company keep strong margins and steady recurring revenue. The ticker symbol for TransDigm, D-I-G-M, TransDigm Group is TDG. The question, Loren Horst, is what is your stated market cap range for TransDigm Group? Ticker symbol TDG?
Loren Horst: Well, obviously, with airplane parts, we're not talking about a small business here. The question is just how large. I'm going to say, 47 billion to 72 billion.
David Gardner: Forty-seven billion dollars to $72 billion. Jason, do you have any fear of flying? Have you ever?
Jason Moser: No, I'm pretty good. My dad, he's a physician by trade. He got his pilot's license when I was just a little kid, so he had a little four seater Cessna that he would take us up in. Yeah, wow, nice. When you get on the big planes, the level of comfort is far greater. I never really have any issue with it.
David Gardner: Any dicey moments ever with dad there in the four seat Cessna?
Jason Moser: No.
David Gardner: Good. I'm glad I would not want to think about that.
Jason Moser: He would fly us to the Bahamas for meetings. He would fly us to Eastern Shore of Maryland to go goose hunting to Greensborough, North Carolina, to go see our grandparents. It was really cool.
David Gardner: That's beautiful. Given that story, I'm rooting for you for this one, Jason. I feel like you have more in touch with TransDigm Group, maybe than Loren or maybe a lot of the rest of us do. Loren said 47 billion to $72 billion. Listeners at home, Jason Moser, are you wanting to agree or disagree with that range?
Jason Moser: I think that's a healthy range. I actually agree with it.
David Gardner: Well, that is a shame because it was just a little bit low. The right call was to disagree because TransDigm is $80.32 billion. It was close. That was a big, generous range that Loren gave himself. This is a company, again, that is very vital. This been a great stock. We're going to talk about that in a sec, but most people have never heard, I don't think of TransDigm Group. I don't think I would have made a great guess at the market cap, even though I'm really happy to say I picked it on July 20 of 2012 for Stock Advisor members. The stock was at $59.52.
David Gardner: In July, 13 years ago, and it's up 24 times in value, 2,319%. This has been a monster winner. One of those companies that you'll see written up in investing books sometimes they'll point out how well this CEO is an asset allocator and how this quiet, steady business just keeps cranking as it has indeed for now more than, I was going to say, one decade for our members, but really decades for shareholders of long vintage. That was actually supposed to be our second throwdown. But now we will shift the final throwdown to the final stock. Number 10. We're about to do number 9. Anyway, so that's on me. That's why I hesitated. It's like, that was the throwdown. But it didn't matter. Good job. It's 5-3. The drama, Jason has his back against the wall here which is awesome. We've been playing the Market Cap Game show 36 times. Sometimes it'll be like 7-1 at this point, and it is hopeless and over. You got a shot here. We'll see. I'll have to bring out an 11 stock if you get the extra points. Loren 5, Jason 3. We're on to stock number 9. Jason Moser, you have an opportunity to nail these last two and send us into overtime. You're going to need to do it to keep that chance for a final four seat this coming March. Are you feeling up to it?
Jason Moser: I'm always up to it.
David Gardner: You look like you're up to it. Jason, for company number 9, I went to their website, and it's one of those video-driven home pages. The big phrase that presents itself above the fold on this company's website is performance engineered for your life outdoors. Any guesses what that company might be?
Jason Moser: I feel like it might be Yeti, but I don't know.
David Gardner: Not a bad guess at all. I'll give you one more hint. This is not the quiz, by the way, we're just having fun. But the three tasks they invite you to perform on their website, on the homepage are number 1, to calculate costs, discover which products fit your budget. That's number 1. Calculate your costs. Number 2, color selector. Which hue it say says you? Then the third task you can complete is to order a sample, get a closer look. Do you want to make one more guess before we actually talk about this company?
Jason Moser: Just performance engineered for.
David Gardner: Do you like to barbecue?
Jason Moser: I've got a Traeger at home, David.
David Gardner: I thought I remembered that about you. Do you have a deck that you barbecue on?
Jason Moser: Is it Trex? Because I have a Trex deck on which my Traeger sits.
David Gardner: Well, that seems very advantageous, potentially, 'cause that is indeed stock number 9. The ticker symbol is TREX. Trex a pioneer in the ecofriendly composite decking that's made from recycled wood and plastic. It's used by homeowners like the Moser family across North America for durable, low-maintenance outdoor living spaces. As I said at the start, performance engineered for your life outdoors. Jason Moser, I'm not going to say the pressures on because that would only make you feel pressure. But what is your stated market cap range for Trex Company, Ticker symbol TREX based, by the way, in Winchester, Virginia.
Jason Moser: Well, I know how much I paid for that deck, and those guys make some money. I do not know the company itself. I haven't followed it, but I am going to go 20 to $30 billion.
David Gardner: Twenty billion to $30 billion. Loren, do you have any relationship as a consumer with the Trex Company?
Loren Horst: I don't. I live in a condo building in DC, so all of the materials have been provided to us beforehand.
David Gardner: Is there some decking that goes around outside the condo?
Loren Horst: A little bit, but technically, I don't own it. I haven't had to make any purchasing decisions. I will say, as Jason was giving his range, I was thinking of a very similar one. I was thinking 20-40. The question is.
David Gardner: He said 20-30.
Loren Horst: He said 20-30.
David Gardner: The question is, if it were over under on 30 billion, which side am I taking?
Loren Horst: Before you make your call, Jason, I do note that there's a color selector on the website. Which hue says you?
Jason Moser: Well, we have, it's like a blue gray color goes with the sliding house.
David Gardner: Nicely match.
Jason Moser: When we moved into our house eight years ago, it was an old wooden deck that just was in its last days.
David Gardner: Were you right away, we're going Trex.
Jason Moser: My wife and I were both like, no, we need to build something that lasts. Eventually we'll want to sell the house. When you do that, that's a nice you can be, look, you're never going to have to worry about this deck. All you got to do is just pressure wash it once a year. It really is a great product.
David Gardner: Loren Horst, Jason said 20 to $30 billion. You were thinking 20-40. Listeners at home, Loren, do you want to agree or disagree with Jason?
Loren Horst: I think I'm going to disagree with Jason, because when we're talking about Dex, we're talking about outside, so I'm going to say outside the range.
David Gardner: I like that, and, indeed, that was the right call. Therefore, Loren clinches victory 20-30 billion was actually quite a bit high. Trex has been a fantastic stock. We'll talk about that in a sec, but I wish it had reached a $30 billion market cap. Trex's market cap is $5.88 billion. It's sub six. But get this. Rick Munars first picked this stock for Rule Breakers July 25th, so summer 2012. It was at $3.38 a share then. Today, it's 55. It's a 16 bagger. This is a stock, by the way that was up at 135 and dropped to 45 in 2022, which was a gut punch year for a lot of portfolios, mine included. It's still sitting at $55 a share today, well down from its all time highs, but way up from our pick at $3 a share back in 2012. This company has been fantastic. Isn't it interesting to think about that? The company its market cap is that low, and yet we've made 16 times our money by holding friends, another boring company that most people wouldn't even think that's a stock you'd want to buy.
Jason Moser: I wouldn't call it boring. I have a lot of fun on my.
David Gardner: I actually agree. I totally agree.
Jason Moser: I'm with you. I get it. It is just a boring idea. It's just decking. You wouldn't think about it.
Loren Horst: They're not manufacturing Internet connected planks.
David Gardner: Exactly. Well, not yet atleast.
Jason Moser: Not yet.
David Gardner: But one of the lessons I've often pointed out that I love about the Market Cap Game Show is when you do think a stock has a higher market cap, both of you guys had this somewhere 20 plus and then you find out it's 5.5. I think maybe that goes in your watchlist. What you're saying is.
Jason Moser: I think so too. We were talking about that merger arbitrage thing earlier and short term catalysts versus long term trends. I think this is a little bit of both because this is a long term trend. People are more and more saying, I want to do this and do it right, and it's going to last. Also think about a short term catalyst. When rates start coming back down, and they will eventually, modestly, slowly, but they will, that frees up a little spending. That makes it a bit more attractive for folks to either take out that home equity line of credit and do some work or sell the house and move, and then they're doing whatever they do to that new house. I think there is a little bit of both there with this company.
David Gardner: Thank you. Well said. This has been really, again, a fantastic performer, still less than half of its highs during COVID, but way up over the last 13 years in a company that we certainly continue to favor at Motley Fool Rule Breakers. Well, we're going to move on to stock number 10. Jason while, you have been mathematically eliminated. I always like to point out to my players that people tend to remember, what happens at the end. You have an opportunity here to distinguish yourself and make it even closer. It's 6-3. We go on to stock number 10, our last one for this market cap game show. Turning back to Loren. Loren, if you were to start listing out the best known companies in the world. Worldwide randomly asking any of Earth's 8 billion inhabitants. What's a present day company they've heard of, a brand they recognize? What's on your short list?
Loren Horst: I think number 1 on the list would be Coca Cola. I just watched the Netflix documentary on the Titanic submersible. I think there was a quote at some point that said, like, there were three words in the English language that were universally known throughout the world. Titanic was one of them. Coca Cola was another. I don't remember.
David Gardner: I've not seen that documentary. That's a great answer. That's not stock number 10. What other companies might be on that short list?
Loren Horst: I'm trying to think of consumer brands that have a global presence. Obviously, some of the largest companies in the world like Apple certainly would come.
David Gardner: That would be on the short list. Jason, any jump to mind for you?
Jason Moser: Well, Apple was the one that really stood out. I always found it interesting in our travels. We've been to Egypt and Kazakhstan and all over. Starbucks always held a really strong sway wherever we went. People knew the logo. They knew the brand, and in many cases, it was aspirationals. I just found that very interesting the global presence that Starbucks has actually maintained.
David Gardner: That's another great one. Really, if you were to build a portfolio based on foundational stocks of the world's best known brands, I think you'd probably do pretty well. You certainly would have done great with that small portfolio of those stocks you guys just mentioned over the last 20 years. How about one more here, guys? How about a famous global brand that you'd bet your bottom dollar nearly every kid? Probably their parents on the planet would instantly recognize, even if they can't quite remember their own address.
Jason Moser: Every kid, Disney?
David Gardner: That is stock number 10. Ticker symbol DIS, and, it's a throwdown. It's time to go into throwdown mode for stock number 10, Jason and Loren writing down their best market cap range guesses as tight as they can be and as accurately as they can write it down for stock number 10. Disney. Walt Disney. You know that Disney, global entertainment powerhouse known for its iconic film studios, theme parks, media networks, streaming platforms, Disney+. It is a brand woven deeply into popular culture. It's been a fantastic investment over the long term. The last few years, not been so great. It'll be very interesting to see where our players come out with their stated market cap ranges. Again, listeners at home, all you have to do is say, I agree with Jason or I agree with Loren. Let's turn to Loren. Loren, like your pencil is down? What is your market cap range for Disney?
Loren Horst: David, I gave a range of 220 billion to 260 billion.
David Gardner: Two hundred and twenty to 260 billion. Jason, what do you got?
Jason Moser: Two hundred and ten billion to 230 billion.
David Gardner: These guys are pretty close. Do you guys do homework? Did you do any homework before this game? You're like, David might ask me Disney. I'm going to look up Disney's market cap?
Jason Moser: No, I wanted to do.
David Gardner: You're just that good?
Jason Moser: No,.
David Gardner: 'Cause these are good guesses.
Loren Horst: I did try to look at the Stock Advisor scorecard and just not necessarily memorize all of them, but almost think of, this is closer to the top. The way I remember it, too, because I know Netflix is 500 plus billion dollars. I know that Disney's it's initially half of Netflix, and that's where my logic fell.
David Gardner: Very good. Well, players at home, again, I need you to say either Jason or Loren, 3, 2, 1, you agree with? You said it. If you said Jason Moser, give yourself a plus one because Disney's market cap is 213.45 billion, and that is inside Jason's impressively tight range of 210-230. Not far off the lower end of your parameter. Loren, you said 220 Disney again, 213. This is a company, guys that I do think with Coca Cola, and Starbucks and Apple. Whether you held them over the last 25 years or you hold them over the next 25 years, I think your money is well invested. Although Disney's undergone a lot of stress, some changes in CEO, people saying things like cable TV, ESPN, et cetera. Those are not as valuable in the new world we're living in. Also, I have to admit, as a longtime Marvel fan, that's how I got into this company. I did start getting a little tired of all of the superior movies about you. But let me turn back to Jason because first of all, you nailed it, and good job. People may only remember this final one, Jason Moser. You're walking out a winner here. But what do you think of Disney these days?
Jason Moser: This is going to be something I keep as a good memory here. I had great memories taking my kids to Disney World when they were younger.
David Gardner: There you go.
Jason Moser: To me, I don't personally own shares, but it's the first stock my girls ever bought 12, 13 years ago and they still own it today because they are Fools like their father.
David Gardner: Love it.
Jason Moser: I think they're better days for Disney ahead. They were slow to adapt to the new streaming world. With that said, building what they've built with the number of subscribers that they have, it's still extremely impressive. I think it's really just a matter of time until those financials start to reflect that. That parks side of the business is just irreplicable. it's just so darn impressive. Here, David, I'm not going to lie. We took the kids to Paris, France a few years back for spring break. We were there for, 10 days. They said, listen, we're here for so long. They had two of their friends with them. Can we just go to Disney World, Paris one day?
David Gardner: What a good dad.
Jason Moser: I like a little sheepish doing it at first, but I swear to you, the experience was so consistent, so impressive. You just see what they can do on a global scale. I would not bet against this company.
Loren Horst: I'll say that I cut the cord maybe a decade ago, and ESPN has been what I've been missing this whole time. I cannot wait for the direct to consumer offering coming out this fall as soon as that I was overjoyed by that announcement. I can't wait to spend it. $30 a month, whatever it is, to add that to my Disney+. Sports are back. I'm very bullish on Disney in the long run.
David Gardner: Well, thank you. Thank you to two fantastic contestants. Good sports both, a gracious winner and a gracious second placer.
Loren Horst: A loser.
David Gardner: Before we close, let me mention a reminder that next week is our June 2025 mailbag. Your ideas, Well, they power my mailbag episodes every month. Send your burning questions, witty observations or rule breaking stories to our email address [email protected]. Want your voice heard? Great. Your message just might be our next mailbag highlight. Our Inbox is always open. [email protected]. I also want to mention a special episode we're doing in two weeks, and that's our annual what you've done to create financial freedom. You might notice I tend to time that right around Independence Day here in the United States each year. It's going to be what you've done to create financial freedom volume 3. What have you done over the past year to help push yourself ahead or others ahead on the path to financial freedom. Drop me your story, your best tips for other Fool listeners. Again, [email protected]. You can tweet us on Twitter x at RBI Podcast. Thank you, both. The final accounting then is Loren Horst, six, Jason Moser four. But Loren and Jason and I know we're not playing this game for each other. We're playing for you. How did you score, dear Fool? Dear listener at home, we hope you outscored all of us. The purpose of the Market Cap Game Show is to make more popular. Now, I'm never going to say as popular as Jeopardy, but to make more popular market caps, the real value of stocks on the market that most people don't understand. Except that you do understand because you just listened to us for an hour, and I hope you scored at least a few points this week and maybe beat one or both of our competitors. Jason and Loren, you both distinguished yourselves and helped make the world a bit smarter, happier, and richer. Last line from you? Jason Moser.
Jason Moser: Well, as a rookie, I was very excited to get this invite. First and foremost, thank you for having me. It was really a lot of fun. I know, I did not earn my way into the final four, but I do hope there is a day where you can have me back.
David Gardner: Love it.
Loren Horst: I think on the first day of the tournament at 12:30 on that Thursday, the first match up is always an 89 match up. It's always a really close one. If this is effectively the elite eight of the Market Cap.
David Gardner: It is.
Loren Horst: March Madness Tournament. Then this was a great 45 match up, which I hope that doesn't mean I have to go up against Emily. Once March comes around, but I will be ready for it.
David Gardner: Well said. We do have two more Market Cap Game Shows this year, the one that closes out the September quarter and the one that closes out the December quarter, where we'll have new guests. But Loren, Emily, and two guests to be named later will be there with us all next March. In the meantime for Jason Moser, for Loren Horst, I'm David Gardner. Fool on.
