Sometimes, bad news for a stock investor can be good news for a stock buyer. Take the case of Intuitive Machines (LUNR -3.52%).
One month ago, I asked myself if Intuitive Machines -- a stock I already own -- might be worth buying even more of, after its share price nearly doubled from the price at which I first bought it. Paying twice the price for the very same stock ordinarily wouldn't sound like much of a bargain. In fact, after running the valuation on the stock in May, I ended up hedging my bet and arguing it might be worth buying. Yet it also seemed to cost more than I usually consider an acceptable valuation for an unprofitable space stock.
But that was then, and this is now. Over the past month, shares of Intuitive Machines have slumped 14%, closing Friday below $11 a share. For existing shareholders, that's disappointing. For investors looking to buy into Intuitive Machines for the first time, however, it may be an opportunity.
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Introducing Intuitive Machines
In case you're unfamiliar with the company, Intuitive Machines is the very definition of a space stock. The company is best known for being the first private company to land a spacecraft on the moon, and for landing an American spacecraft on the moon for the first time since the Apollo era 50 years ago.
It has in fact landed spacecraft on the moon twice now. Granted, neither landing was 100% successful -- both vehicles toppled over on their sides after landing -- but they did touch down safe and intact before keeling over. The company has secured NASA contracts for two more landing attempts, scheduled to take place in 2026 and 2027. And Intuitive Machines has promised to "incorporate ... lessons learned" from the first two partially successful landings to try and improve its performance on the next two.
According to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company was paid $132 million for its first landing and $122 million for the second (with both NASA and various commercial customers contributing to the revenue). Intuitive Machines' third mission, IM-3, is said to be priced at $87 million, but that number may be increased, and doesn't yet include payments from commercial customers.
As valuable as these moon landing contracts are, however, they're arguably dwarfed by a completely different kind of contract Intuitive Machines secured from NASA last year. For $4.8 billion, spread across 10 years (so $480 million per year -- quadruple the value of a lander contract), the company has been hired to build a Near Space Network of satellites that will relay communications from low earth orbit to the moon and back.
How to value Intuitive Machines stock
Over the past few years, both stock markets and corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been valuing (mostly unprofitable) space stocks in a range of 2 to 4 times annual revenue.
Intuitive Machines did $217 million in revenue last year, implying the stock should cost less than $880 million today. And yet it currently costs closer to $1.3 billion; factoring in "shares held by non-controlling interest holders," S&P Global Market Intelligence data suggests the company's implied market capitalization might be as high as $2 billion. So is that too much to pay?
I think not.
Why not? Well, just consider a future in which Intuitive Machines keeps launching one moon lander per year for NASA and its private customers (say, $120 million in revenue), operates its Near Space Network (for another $480 million), and does nothing else at all. Imagine it doesn't provide communications services to private customers with payloads on the moon, launch more often than once per year, or explore any new business opportunities in space.
That's still $600 million a year in revenue, and at a revenue valuation (price-to-sales ratio) of 4, it implies that Intuitive Machines stock should be worth $2.4 billion -- and that's assuming the company does all of this unprofitably. (The price-to-sales ratio of 2 to 4 only applies to unprofitable space companies, remember.) Yet analysts polled by S&P Global anticipate that Intuitive Machines actually will begin reporting profits based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) just two years from now, in 2027.
Even taking the most extreme estimate of the stock's current valuation today, $2 billion, that means the stock is probably already undervalued -- and a buy.
