Since the crypto sector sprang to life right around the depths of the Great Recession, Bitcoin (BTC -1.41%) and Ethereum (ETH -4.19%) have always operated as the one and two seeds -- Batman and Robin if you will.
Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency viewed as the bellwether of the industry. In recent years, many have begun to view Bitcoin and its finite 21 million tokens as a form of digital gold that can hedge inflation and serve as safe asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and the U.S. government's mounting debt situation. Ethereum, on the other hand, is viewed as the network that is the epicenter of smart contracts and decentralized applications.
While Bitcoin's dominance doesn't look to be going anywhere, with a $2.3 trillion market cap, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick thinks Ethereum could be vulnerable, with one top cryptocurrency set to flip Ethereum by 2028.
The crypto story of the year
Ethereum and Bitcoin have had strong years, particularly Bitcoin, which seems to become more ingrained in the mainstream financial world every day. But neither can come close to the year that XRP (XRP 1.33%) is having, up roughly 400% during the past year (as of July 31).
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Donald Trump's presidential election win back in November triggered a series of positive events for XRP, notably a change in leadership at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Once the Trump administration took office, the SEC quickly began settling or dropping major lawsuits including one against Ripple, the company behind XRP, which had been an overhang on the token for several years.
Now, Kendrick thinks the run for XRP may have only just begun and that it's even possible that XRP overtakes Ethereum by 2028. As of this writing, Ethereum had a $460 billion market cap, while XRP had a $186 billion market cap. Kendrick's argument is built on the belief that XRP and Ripple will gain wider institutional adoption and begin to take share of cross-border payments market.
Earlier this year, Ripple paid $1.25 billion to acquire the prime broker Hidden Road. Hidden Road offers institutional traders a wide range of services including clearing, prime brokerage, and funding for foreign exchange (FX), digital assets, derivatives, swaps, and fixed income. Ripple sees this as a way to continue to bridge the gap between institutional investors, digital assets, and payments.
Earlier this year, Ripple Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse called out SWIFT's high cross-border transaction error rates, ranging from 6% to 11%. SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, is used by banks all over the world to send payment instructions to one another, largely for the purpose of cross-border payments. Garlinghouse said he thinks Ripple and XRP could free up as much as $10 trillion in transfers through its near instant-settlement capabilities. The XRP network currently is capable of processing 1,500 transactions per second. Additionally, Garlinghouse believes XRP has the potential to take 14% of SWIFT's volume by 2030.
Kendrick has a $5.50 price target on XRP by the end of this year, then $8 by 2026, and $12.50 by 2028. A $12.50 price would propel XRP's market cap to about $740 billion. XRP recently traded at about $3.10.
Can XRP overtake Ethereum?
Given the volatility in cryptocurrencies, I would always recommend that investors take crypto price targets with a grain of salt. Nobody can say for certain what will happen. However, cryptocurrencies with strong technical networks and use cases probably are the ones that will experience the most price appreciation. I find XRP and Ripple to be an intriguing story, and cross-border payments definitely seems to be a key area ripe for disruption by cryptocurrencies.
While Ethereum is quite different from XRP, many stablecoins including the two largest U.S.-dollar backed stablecoins are issued on Ethereum's network, so it stands to benefit as well from increasing stabelcoin use.
Although it's hard to say one way or another, I find it unlikely that XRP will overtake Ethereum in just a few years, primarily because Ethereum should benefit from cryptocurrencies and stablecoins taking payments volume. Ultimately, I find both Ethereum and XRP to be interesting cryptocurrencies with strong networks, so I do think investors can buy both. However, XRP has been more volatile, so I've been advising a smaller, more speculative position for now.
