Two years ago, then-Firefly CEO Bill Weber told me Firefly might have something big to announce within 12 or 18 months, and I admit I hoped that would be an initial public offering (IPO) of Firefly stock. (It turned out, the big announcement was a space launch that would put an artificial intelligence computer in space.)
But while it took a bit longer than I expected, Firefly Aerospace is finally ready to IPO.
Image source: Getty Images.
The Firefly Aerospace IPO
On July 28, Firefly filed an amended S-1 statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), giving the first bit of detail about its planned IPO. A week later -- Aug. 4 -- the company updated its S-1 with new numbers. Here's how things stand now.
Firefly intends to sell 16.2 million shares at its IPO. The IPO date has not yet been set in stone, but it's expected to happen tomorrow. Firefly shares will be priced between $41 and $43 each (up from an earlier range of $35 to $39 -- suggesting strong demand), raising potentially $696.6 million in new cash to pay down debt and fund the company's multiple space ventures. At the midpoint of the new price range, $42, Firefly would have a total company valuation of more than $6 billion.
For reference, that's more than three times the company's private market value at this time last year. That's quite a turnaround indeed for a company that just eight years ago had to file for (and later get bought out of) bankruptcy protection!
Firefly will list on the Nasdaq, and its chosen ticker symbol is "FLY."
Who owns Firefly pre-IPO?
According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Firefly stock is currently controlled by private equity firm AE Industrial Partners, which owns a 50% interest in the company. Smaller minority stakes are held by a wide variety of venture capital firms, and by one strategic investor, Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), which is also Firefly's partner, helping to develop a new medium launch vehicle that will be called Eclipse.
In its latest S-1 statement, Firefly noted that after creating new shares for the IPO, AE Industrial's stake in the company will fall to 41.8% (or 41.1% if underwriters of the IPO exercise their overallotment options). Agreements with other investors, however, mean AE Industrial and its allies will continue to control more than 50% of the votes on Firefly's board of directors.
Why might you want to buy Firefly shares?
With all those numbers out of the way, let's get to the fun part: What is Firefly doing in space that should excite you, and make you want to own a piece of this IPO?
On March 2, 2025, Firefly successfully put its Blue Ghost lunar lander on the moon. It wasn't the first private space company to land on the moon. (That was Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) in 2024.) But Firefly was the first to land 100% successfully, and upright. (Both of Intuitive's spacecraft that have landed on the moon toppled over and fell on their sides after landing.)
The company also has a working space rocket, the Alpha, which has launched multiple times. It's working on two more rockets, Eclipse and an upgraded Antares rocket for partner Northrop Grumman.
And Firefly has a fleet of satellites/spacecraft called Elytra, the first of which is scheduled to launch later this year.
Oh, and just one more number for you: Firefly has $1.1 billion in contracts signed and in backlog, awaiting fulfillment and conversion into revenue. The company's website details no fewer than 10 upcoming missions on the manifest, including three more moon landings through 2029.
Should you buy the Firefly IPO?
So far, I've laid out the arguments in favor of buying into the Firefly IPO. That said, you should never invest in an IPO before considering the valuation, and this is where things get iffy.
According to the company's revised S-1, in all of 2024, Firefly did $60.8 million in revenue -- and lost $231.1 million. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue reached $55.9 million, growing 572% in comparison to Q1 2024. That's the good news. The bad news is that losses reached $60.1 million, implying annual losses trending toward $240 million this year.
Translation: Revenue is rising rapidly, but -- so far -- it's not translating into smaller losses, much less profitability for Firefly.
At its current revenue run rate, and assuming a $6 billion valuation at IPO, Firefly stock could cost an astronomical 27 times current-year sales, which is far more than most publicly traded, unprofitable space stocks currently cost, and a lot more than the 2x to 4x valuation that's been the historical norm for this type of company.
All of which is to say, there's a lot of hope baked into this particular IPO. It's not entirely unjustified. Firefly's marked some strong accomplishments already, and its revenue is growing quickly. But there's risk to investing in this IPO as well, made worse by the steadily climbing valuation.
My advice: If you do decide to invest in the Firefly IPO, bet small, so you can only lose small.
