XRP (XRP 0.58%), the world's third-largest cryptocurrency, which has a market cap over $177 billion, recently passed $3. While the cryptocurrency continues to be volatile, XRP has had an epic run since President Donald Trump won the election last November, ushering in a new, more welcoming regulatory era for cryptocurrencies. XRP has benefited immensely. With the token hovering around the $3 level, as of this writing, is $4 on the horizon?
What could catapult XRP higher
One of the reasons XRP benefited from Trump's win so much is that the Trump administration installed new cabinet members to lead most regulatory agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In 2020, the SEC sued Ripple, the company behind XRP, and the company's co-founder and CEO for allegedly selling XRP as an unregistered security in 2013.
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The case had implications for the crypto sector and cast a negative light on XRP. While it looked like Ripple was heading for victory in the case, new leadership at the SEC expedited a resolution. Other new regulations have paved the way for an eventual SEC-approved spot-XRP exchange-traded fund, which would likely improve liquidity and broaden institutional interest in XRP.
Ripple also continues to grow its business with mainstream banks and institutional traders. This year, the company acquired the prime brokerage Hidden Road, which it could use to integrate XRP within more mainstream finance activities. Furthermore, Ripple launched RLUSD, its own U.S.-dollar-backed stablecoin, which XRP serves as a bridge token for. A bridge token is a digital asset that allows for the transfer of value between different blockchain networks.
Another way for XRP to draw interest would be to continue to drive a compelling use case with its network. XRP can currently process 1,500 transactions per second (TPS), making it ideal for cross-border payments. Other crypto networks boast even higher TPS, but XRP has an interesting ecosystem around it with Ripple, which has onboarded large mainstream financial clients and now has another bridge to mainstream finance with Hidden Road. RLUSD could present another opportunity for increased usage, and Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse is optimistic that XRP can take share from international payment transactions.
Garlinghouse specifically sees an opportunity to take share from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT). SWIFT helps financial institutions all over the world transmit payment instructions to one another, although Garlinghouse claims the error rate is still fairly high. He thinks XRP over time could capture 14% of SWIFT's volume. If it does, XRP would see significantly increased usage, likely driving demand for the token and therefore driving the price higher.
Is $4 on the horizon?
Cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile, which makes setting crypto price targets difficult, as there are no cash flows or earnings to value. That said, if the crypto sector stays hot, XRP could certainly benefit and shoot higher to $4.
For sustained price increases and rerating against the sector, I think XRP would need to start fulfilling some of Garlinghouse's predictions, including greater use for international payment transactions and share stolen from SWIFT. But it's hard to know when that might start happening, if it does. After all, it's fairly common to hear about great use cases for a crypto network only to see no movement in price.
That's why I am keeping my position in XRP small and speculative. The cryptocurrency certainly has significant potential, but it also faces significant risks.
