Nvidia (NVDA +0.64%) is the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap of around $4.1 trillion. Every time it faces adversity, the stock finds a way to go higher.
Early this year, investors were rattled by news of a budget-friendly AI model, DeepSeek R1, developed in China. This raised doubts about the necessity of large investments in Nvidia's next-generation chips, ultimately causing a drop in the company's stock price. Then there were the concerns around tariffs in early April, which resulted in the stock hitting its lowest levels this year, falling to below $100.
However, time and time again, Nvidia's stock has proven to be resilient, and it has continued to rise higher. It would need to rise by another 22% to hit yet another milestone: $5 trillion in market cap. Are there any factors that could hinder Nvidia's progress, or is it just a matter of time before it reaches that value?
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Nvidia's growth rate expected to remain above 50%
Last week, Nvidia posted its latest earnings numbers, and demand remained strong for its cutting-edge AI chips. Its revenue rose by 56% year over year, totaling $46.7 billion for the period ending July 27. That was slightly better than analyst expectations of just over $46 billion. And adjusted per-share profits of $1.05 were also higher than estimates of $1.01.
But what's most encouraging for investors is that the guidance also looks good, as Nvidia still expects to see its growth rate to be above 50% for the current quarter. Although its growth rate is slowing down, that's still incredibly impressive for a business of Nvidia's size.
NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.
Has Nvidia's valuation finally gotten too high?
Year to date, Nvidia's stock has risen by about 25% (as of Sept. 2). It's trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of around 50, which isn't cheap, but it still may not be all that expensive given the company's incredibly fast growth rate. And based on analyst estimates, it's trading at a forward P/E multiple of 38.
Nvidia's stock price has effectively become a gauge of how much growth potential investors see for AI in general. News of the DeepSeek AI model hurt its valuation temporarily, as did tariff-related news back in April, which affected the stock market as a whole. Given the robust demand anticipated for AI chips, I believe Nvidia, even at its current price, could still climb higher and be a worthwhile investment.
However, if there are any concerns or rumblings that tech companies are cutting back on AI investments, investors who are sitting on big gains may be eager to cash out, which could lead to a decline in Nvidia's value, at least in the short term.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
When might Nvidia hit $5 trillion?
I believe it's only a matter of time before Nvidia hits a $5 trillion market cap, considering the enormous potential of AI and its likely dominance in the AI chip market for the foreseeable future. But I wouldn't expect it to reach $5 trillion this year or even within the next 12 months. It could take multiple years, as the stock's high valuation, combined with uncertainty in the markets due to tariffs and trade wars, may limit its near-term returns.
That's clear from the stock's latest earnings beat. Even though Nvidia did well and its guidance was strong, the stock hasn't been taking off. Investors are clearly thinking about the longer-term picture, including its slowing growth, and what lies ahead. Nvidia still looks to be a solid buy for the long term, but there could be some challenges ahead for it in the short term.
