Uber Technologies' (UBER +0.84%) stock rallied nearly 30% over the past 12 months as the S&P 500 advanced less than 20%. The ride-hailing leader outperformed the market as it gained more customers, streamlined its business, and expanded its subscription-based platform.
But will Uber's stock stay ahead of the S&P 500 over the next year? Let's review its business model, growth rates, and valuations to find out.
Image source: Uber.
What happened to Uber over the past year?
In 2020, Uber's total trips, gross bookings, and revenue declined as more people stayed home during the pandemic. Uber Eats' food deliveries surged throughout that crisis, but that expansion couldn't fully offset the declines of its core ride-sharing business.
NYSE: UBER
Key Data Points
But from 2020 to 2024, its number of monthly active platform consumers (MAPCs) surged from 93 million to 171 million, its annual number of trips more than doubled from 5 billion to 11.3 billion, gross bookings nearly tripled from $57.9 billion to $162.8 billion, and annual revenue nearly quadrupled from $11.1 billion to $44 billion.
Uber's market share in the U.S. (its largest market) also rose from 71% in October 2020 to 76% in March 2024, according to Bloomberg Second Measure, as Lyft's (LYFT +1.56%) market share declined from 29% to 24%.
Uber's business continued to fire on all cylinders over the past year.
|
Metric |
Q2 2024 |
Q3 2024 |
Q4 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Monthly active platform consumers growth (YOY) |
14% |
13% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
|
Trips growth (YOY) |
21% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
|
Gross bookings growth (YOY) |
19% |
16% |
18% |
14% |
17% |
|
Revenue growth (YOY) |
16% |
20% |
20% |
14% |
18% |
Data source: Uber Technologies. YOY = year over year. YOY = Year-over-year.
That robust growth was driven by the expansion of its Uber One subscription platform, which eliminates delivery fees and provides discounts, credits for rides and purchases, and various other perks. Its total number of Uber One subscribers grew 60% to 30 million at the end of 2024 and climbed to 36 million at the end of the second quarter of 2025. Uber claims those subscribers spend three times as much money as non-subscribers.
Uber also expanded with more grocery and retail deliveries; cheaper options (like Price Lock and Route Share) for its cost-conscious riders; as well as new enterprise, healthcare, and teen-targeted services to broaden its addressable market. Like Lyft, Uber has also been expanding its advertising platform (Uber Ads), which generates higher-margin revenue from its sponsored listings in Uber Eats, in-app ads for its ride-sharing app, and in-car ads on tablets and other screens.
On the bottom line, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) turned positive in 2022 and nearly quadrupled over the following two years. The company also turned profitable on the basis of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) in 2023, and that figure surged more than fivefold (thanks to a big one-time tax benefit) in 2024.
Uber's profits skyrocketed as it divested its unprofitable noncore businesses, reduced the size of its workforce, and streamlined its core business. It's also rolling out more autonomous vehicles worldwide with Alphabet's Waymo and WeRide to gradually reduce its dependence on human drivers.
What will happen to Uber over the next year?
For 2025, analysts expect Uber's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow 17% and 34%, respectively. With an enterprise value of $196 billion, it still looks reasonably valued at 23 times this year's adjusted EBITDA. Lyft trades at just 11 times this year's adjusted EBITDA, but it's smaller than Uber, it's growing slower, and its market share is shrinking.
For 2026, analysts expect Uber's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to rise 15% and 27%, respectively. Assuming the company matches those estimates and still trades at 23 times its adjusted EBITDA, its stock could rise another 30% over the next 12 months.
That gives it a good shot at staying ahead of the S&P 500, which has generated an average annual return of about 10% since its inception. Therefore, Uber should still be a great growth stock to buy and hold for the foreseeable future.
