Eli Lilly (LLY 0.99%) is the most valuable healthcare stock in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $760 billion. It has been soaring in recent years due to the success of its highly effective GLP-1 products: Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss.
Whether it can continue rallying higher and potentially hit a $1 trillion valuation in the future, however, will likely depend on the success of its GLP-1 products, as that has attracted many growth investors. But many other companies have also been aggressively targeting the space, looking to boost their own sales and profits from the massive interest in weight loss drugs.
One company recently announced its interest in being a top player in the GLP-1 market, and it could offer serious competition for Eli Lilly: Roche Holding (RHHBY 0.48%)
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Roche's weight loss drug to enter phase 3 trials
Swiss-based Roche is a formidable rival for Eli Lilly as its market cap is around $300 billion, making it one of the largest companies in the sector. But one area where Roche has been lagging is in the GLP-1 space.
However, that could change in the future as the pharma company recently announced that its injectable drug, CT-388, is now entering phase 3 trials. CEO Teresa Graham says that the company is aiming to be one of the leading players in GLP-1, noting that "we know how to break into new markets." Roche has a rich history of growth that goes back well over century; the company was founded in 1896. Today, its portfolio is full of a wide range of drugs and its best seller is Ocrevus, a treatment for multiple sclerosis.
GLP-1 is a huge opportunity for Roche and over a 24-week period, CT-388 demonstrated positive benefits in an earlier trial where participants achieved an average placebo-adjusted weight loss of 18.8%.Clinical trials, however, can take considerable time and even though CT-388 is in late-stage development, Roche's management anticipates it may not launch until 2030 (assuming it obtains regulatory approval). It is also working on other weight loss treatments, including a pill, CT-996, which is in earlier stages.
Why these challenges may be par for the course for Eli Lilly
Roche is just one example of the rising competition in the GLP-1 drug market. Pharma giant Pfizer recently announced plans to acquire Metsera for its portfolio of GLP-1 drugs, in the hopes of not falling behind. Previously, Pfizer was developing a weight loss pill that it ended up abandoning due to safety concerns. With an acquisition, it could quickly strengthen its portfolio and make itself a contender in the space.
There are many companies that are developing GLP-1 drugs, both large and small. Eli Lilly is in an excellent position, however, by already having approved treatments in its portfolio and it being well on its way to bringing a weight loss pill to market, perhaps by as early as next year. It has a big advantage over Roche, Pfizer, and other companies, which are still trying get approved GLP-1 products in their portfolios.
Through the first six months of the year, Mounjaro and Zepbound have generated a combined $14.7 billion in revenue for Eli Lilly, accounting for more than half of its revenue.
Eli Lilly still looks like a fantastic buy
Any fast-growing market is going to lure in more companies and result in intense competition, and the anti-obesity market is no exception to that phenomenon. But Eli Lilly is an early leader and its relentless pursuit of innovation and developing more GLP-1 drugs is why I believe it'll be just fine, and I think it should be on track to be the first healthcare company to hit a $1 trillion valuation within the next few years.
There's always going to be competition in the healthcare industry, but with Eli Lilly, investors are getting a proven winner. Its shares are down 4% over the past 12 months and any kind of slowdown could make the stock an attractive buying opportunity for the long term. It currently trades at 27 times its estimated future earnings (based on analyst expectations), which is arguably a bargain buy given its phenomenal growth potential.
